Iran War, Oil Shock, Off Ramps, AI's Revenue Explosion and PR Nightmare

Key Takeaways

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  The Iran conflict is triggering a historic energy supply shock -- disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz are causing extreme oil price volatility that threatens to destabilize the global economy and fundamentally shift the upcoming US midterms.

  “Anthropic and OpenAI are scaling revenue faster than any company ever.”

• •

  AI startups are shattering every previous revenue growth record -- OpenAI and Anthropic are scaling their top lines faster than any software companies in history, proving that the real-world demand for intelligence is outpacing the media's PR backlash.

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  Aggressive wealth taxes are accelerating a massive domestic migration of capital -- the passage of new 'millionaire taxes' in states like Washington is triggering an exodus of high-profile founders and tax revenue toward business-friendly hubs like Miami.

  “Anthropic and OpenAI are scaling revenue faster than any company ever.”

Episode Description

(0:00) The Besties welcome Brad Gerstner! (3:48) Economic fallout of the Iran War, escalation scenarios, impact on midterms (19:18) Off ramp strategies, Gulf state involvement, the China angle (27:05) Anthropic and OpenAI scaling revenue faster than any company ever (46:11) AI's PR disaster, open source's future (1:07:51) Washington passes "Millionaire Tax," Howard Schultz bails for Miami Follow Brad: https://x.com/altcap (https://x.com/altcap) Take the survey: https://allin.com/survey Apply for Liquidity: https://allinliquidity.com Apply for Summit: https://theallinsummit.com Follow the besties: https://x.com/chamath (https://x.com/chamath) https://x.com/Jason (https://x.com/Jason) https://x.com/DavidSacks https://x.com/friedberg Follow on X: https://x.com/theallinpod Follow on Instagram: https://www.tiktok.com/@theallinpod Follow on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl (https://rb.gy/tppkzl) https://x.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://x.com/TheZachEffect Referenced in the show: https://www.google.com/finance/quote/BZW00:NYMEX https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/11/cargo-ship-struck-strait-of-hormuz-uk-iran-war.html https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/iran-war-us-israel-trump-03-12-26?post-id=cmmnhwyod000l3b6wdinc1dw5 https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/ending-iran-war-quickly-carries-big-risks-for-the-u-s-and-allies-60c003de https://polymarket.com/event/us-forces-enter-iran-by https://x.com/altcap/status/2029223717356879931 https://www.wsj.com/business/energy-oil/iea-proposes-largest-ever-oil-release-from-strategic-reserves-275f4e5c https://www.wsj.com/opinion/iran-war-oil-operation-epic-fury-mojtaba-khamenei-0d2edb9c https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/iran-war-us-israel-trump-03-12-26 https://x.com/sentdefender/status/2031827082934665293 https://polymarket.com/event/balance-of-power-2026-midterms https://polymarket.com/event/march-inflation-us-annual https://www.ft.com/content/7cab4ec7-4712-4137-b602-119a44f771de https://www.axios.com/2025/05/28/ai-jobs-white-collar-unemployment-anthropic https://www.axios.com/2026/03/06/pentagon-anthropic-amodei-apology https://www.ft.com/content/97bda2ef-fc06-40b3-a867-f61a711b148b https://x.com/WallStreetMav/status/2032115119879045512 https://x.com/TheChiefNerd/status/2032012809433723158 https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/poll-majority-voters-say-risks-ai-outweigh-benefits-rcna262196 https://hai.stanford.edu/news/most-read-the-stanford-hai-stories-that-defined-ai-in-2025 https://x.com/DrTechlash/status/2030734402339365220 https://www.semafor.com/article/12/07/2025/ai-critics-funded-ai-coverage-at-top-newsrooms https://www.cbsnews.com/news/howard-schultz-starbucks-ceo-leaving-seattle-washington-millionaire-tax/ https://www.politico.com/story/2019/02/13/howard-schultz-2020-taxes-1167363 https://x.com/chamath/status/2032135944284094910 https://www.hoover.org/research/net-present-value-billionaire-tax-act-assessment-fiscal-effects-californias-proposed https://www.visualcapitalist.com/mapped-which-u-s-states-gained-the-most-residents-in-2025 https://www.sanders.senate.gov/press-releases/news-sanders-and-khanna-introduce-legislation-to-tax-billionaire-wealth-and-invest-in-working-families