Markets Are Betting the Iran War Is Over — Is it?
Key Takeaways
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Ceasefire removes the geopolitical risk premium
“The market's reaction to the ceasefire suggests that the geopolitical risk premium has completely evaporated.”
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Sticky inflation persists despite Fed efforts
“The underlying data suggests that getting back to 2% inflation is going to be much harder than expected.”
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Value stocks offer protection against volatility
“We are looking for companies that have the ability to return capital to shareholders regardless of the macro backdrop.”
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Rising yields challenge expensive tech valuations
“When the risk-free rate is this high, you have to be much more selective about paying for future growth.”
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Oil prices stabilize as conflict fears fade
“Is the market being too optimistic about the long-term stability of this truce?”
Episode Description
Ed Elson is joined by Robert Armstrong and John Mowrey to break down how the ceasefire with Iran is moving markets, where they think inflation is heading, and what opportunities they see in the market. Robert Armstrong is a commentator for the Financial Times, author of the Unhedged Newsletter, and cohost of the Unhedged podcast. John Mowrey is the Chief Investment Officer of NFJ Investment Group. Subscribe to the Prof G Markets Youtube Channel Check out our latest Prof G Markets newsletter Follow Prof G Markets on Instagram Follow Ed on Instagram, X and Substack Follow Scott on Instagram Send us your questions or comments by emailing Markets@profgmedia.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices