"Bitcoin Will Bottom When This Happens" | Ben Cowen

Key Takeaways

• •

  Bitcoin cycle lows projected for summer 2026

  “I kind of see happening is I see a slow bleed into the summer with slightly lower highs and slightly lower lows, right? That's kind of what happened in 2019. It wasn't a massive capitulation. It was just a series of slightly lower highs and slightly lower lows. And I think that will likely last into the summer of 2026.”

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  Market topped on retail apathy instead of euphoria

  “Why did it feel so different than the top in 2021? Why did it feel so different than the top in 2017 and also the top in 2013? And I think the reason is because you could argue that if the top is in, we actually topped on apathy rather than euphoria, right? There wasn't really a rotation into alt coins. There was not that euphoric feeling.”

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  Quantitative tightening prevented a classic altcoin rotation

  “The bear market and then the subsequent Bitcoin-only bull market essentially started during the time of quantitative tightening, and that's really what happened the same thing this past cycle. The bear market started around the time that you could see the end of QE, and then the Bitcoin-only bull market started before quantitative tightening was over.”

• •

  Altcoins failed to participate in the recent rally

  “In fact, one of the craziest charts you'll see, I think, is if you look at altcoins against the valuation of silver, they're actually below their 2022 lows. So the reason why there's just this lack of interest in crypto, even though Bitcoin went up like 8X, is because almost everything else failed to participate in the actual bull market.”

• •

  Current price action mirrors the 2019 market cycle

  “If you look at the current bear market... it's actually holding up a lot better than all the prior bear markets. Normally at this point, we would have experienced a 50% drawdown, which we haven't experienced yet. But if you actually compare to the one in 2019, it actually tracks a little bit better.”

Episode Description

#Bitcoin #Crypto #Finance Ben Cowen joins me to break down why Bitcoin still looks like it’s following the same midterm-year pattern we’ve seen before, why he thinks the low is probably not in yet, and why a move below $60K later this year is still very much on the table. We talk about why bear markets spend more time grinding up than crashing down, why Bitcoin may not make new highs again until the next cycle, why retail topped on apathy instead of euphoria, and why Ben thinks most altcoins are still just a casino. We also get into oil, energy stocks, manufacturing, stablecoins, and why the real lesson of this cycle may be that crypto spent too much time chasing speculation instead of building products people actually use. 🎙 Guests Ben Cowen - https://x.com/benjamincowen Timestamps 0:00 Coming Up 1:18 Why Bitcoin Feels Stuck at 70K 2:56 What a Convincing Bitcoin Bottom Would Look Like 3:18 Why Bear Markets Fool Bulls and Bears 5:05 The Key Bottom Indicator Ben Is Watching 6:13 The Main Bull Case for Bitcoin Right Now 7:12 Why a 30K–50K Range Isn’t Impossible 10:17 Why Ben Thinks Bitcoin Likely Breaks 60K Later 11:20 Why New Highs This Year Are Unlikely 12:38 Bitcoin Topped on Apathy, Not Euphoria 15:15 Why This Cycle Still Looks Surprisingly Normal 17:22 Why Bitcoin Keeps Bleeding Against Stocks 20:53 The Altcoin Casino Problem 23:43 Why Crypto Focused on the Wrong Things 27:25 Ben’s Long-Term Bull Case for Bitcoin 28:10 What Ben Is Actually Bullish On Now 🚀 Connect & Learn Join The Wolf Pack Community Channel (Free Telegram) – Daily crypto market updates + direct chat with Scott: https://t.me/+34ihhgJnZYRlOWU8 Join The Wolf Pack News Channel (Free Telegram) - Daily crypto news & technical analysis with Scott: https://t.me/+Jzsrl5Xp9NJmMDk0 Free Wolf Den Newsletter – Crypto news & market analysis every weekday: https://thewolfden.substack.com/ 📊 Featured Trading Tools OKX – Trade like a pro with 1:1 backed assets and industry-leading speed. Start your journey: https://app.okx.com/join/THEWOAS Arch Public – Hedge-fund-level algorithmic trading tools: https://archpublic.com/ Trading Alpha – Pro-grade crypto indicators (Code: 10OFF): https://tradingalpha.io/?via=scottmelker 📲 Follow Scott Melker Twitter/X: https://x.com/scottmelker Website: https://www.thewolfofallstreets.io/ Spotify: https://spoti.fi/30N5FDe Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/3FASB2c 📩Promote your brand with The Wolf of All Streets. For sponsorship & partnership opportunities, contact info@thewolfofallstreets.io ⚠️ Disclaimer The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. This video was created for entertainment. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this video constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices