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Sal Murano, a maritime historian and former merchant mariner, breaks down the 'circulatory system' of global trade for both C-suite executives and retail investors.
“I think that's part of what I do is really make it a very complex system like supply chain, understandable to the common person.”
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The ongoing Iran crisis is a 'Black Swan' event for container logistics, threatening a massive backlog in East Asian ports that will eventually spike U.S. freight rates.
“Jeremy Nixon, the CEO of ONE... just said... 'this is, you know, a big Black Swan event. We weren't envisioning this.' And what we're gonna see is backlog happen in the East Asia ports and that's gonna spill over to trade coming to the United States.”
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Despite the political narrative of 'de-risking' from China, many shippers find it is still more cost-effective to pay 145% tariffs than to move production to other nations.
“I was talking to shippers, you know, some of them were looking at 145% tariffs outta China and sat there and said, it's still cheaper for me to go to China to get some of these things.”
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The real threat to U.S. West Coast ports isn't internal competition, but the superior 'flat' rail infrastructure in Vancouver and Prince Rupert that bypasses the Rockies.
“If I'm gonna ship into Chicago, for example, I'm probably gonna go into Vancouver. 'cause it's, it's, it's, the rail system is a little bit better. It's flatter. I don't gotta go over the Rockies.”
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Global shipping has fundamentally shifted since 2016; LA and Long Beach no longer hold a monopoly as East Coast and Gulf ports (Savannah, Houston, NY) absorb the bulk of new trade flows.
“Back when the West coast was the dominant area, you know, LA and Long Beach were sucking up 60% of trade. That's not the case anymore. Things go through the Panama Canal. Things go around Africa now.”