HEDGE INFLATION RISKS

“To me, the market has de-levered and de-grossed a fair bit amount, like so much so that shorting at these areas is a very tough place to make money when you see these types of moves and factor in on top of that. That volatility skew and put demand is still very high. So we've de-grossed tremendously. A lot of the long onlies, the trend followers, systematics, and the market is still very hedged.”

“Oil prices aren't high enough for demand destruction, but they're high enough for inflation. You can make the argument, it's actually almost better for it to go higher. Then you get the demand destruction, like the central bank's gonna actually do something. We're stuck in the corridor of everybody's frozen.”

“This is wartime allocation of capital. And this isn't just about the Iran situation, this is about what's been building for three years, four years, five years. It just favors scarce resources you can't print. The incentives here point to inflation, and inflation is really bad for risk assets because it sends bond yields higher and equity multiples lower.”

“I think part of the problem is the market got over-hedged and indexed actual index realized volatility did not rise commensurately with the implied volatility. So implied volatility is forward-looking, realized volatility is backward-looking. And like we said, the index actual trading did not really move that much. So the implied volatility rolls off as time goes on, causes that short squeeze effect that we saw today.”

“You know what is so fascinating is like from an index basis, things not much happens, but underneath the hood, if you look on like a sectoral basis, everything happens and that's really where all the alphas generated. But you even notice from the like you said, the indexes are unchanged, but some of the hedge fund performance numbers came out and some of these multi-platform funds got absolutely rocked.”