- •
Iran conflict risks US boots on ground
“And if you go to Polymarket, you're going to see the odds for boots on the ground. And this is looking at the month of April. And we can check on the daily. And then if you go to the weekly, you could even see a major, major spike here. We are seeing some increased odds that we're going to see boots on the ground this month in April.”
- •
Oil spikes lead to higher CPI inflation
“Now, one thing you're going to see is you'll see CPI in oil. They really move in tandem. They kind of move in lockstep here. And if you wait till the end, we're about to have a major spike in the chart. You can see it right here, but the CPI inflation hasn't caught up with that major spike in oil prices yet.”
- •
War escalation threatens current Bitcoin range
“Now, if you asked me 12 hours ago, yeah, I still think Bitcoin is heading to 80K, but boots on the ground is going to put dampening effect on everything, except for oil, like I was saying. So we might see Bitcoin visit into the high 50s, low 60s sooner rather than later.”
- •
Holiday weekend causes low liquidity volatility
“And if we do see a severe escalation over this holiday weekend, remember this is a holiday weekend. It's gonna be low liquidity, extra volatility. Bitcoin might lose this range.”
- •
Asset owners win during skyrocketing inflation
“I like how they broke it down in this post. Asset owners will be the only winner long-term if we see inflation skyrocket. And so this has really given Trump an ultimatum. Trump, in my opinion, is at a crossroads.”
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“And if you go to Polymarket, you're going to see the odds for boots on the ground. And this is looking at the month of April. And we can check on the daily. And then if you go to the weekly, you could even see a major, major spike here. We are seeing some increased odds that we're going to see boots on the ground this month in April.”
- •
Iran conflict risks US boots on ground
“And if you go to Polymarket, you're going to see the odds for boots on the ground. And this is looking at the month of April. And we can check on the daily. And then if you go to the weekly, you could even see a major, major spike here. We are seeing some increased odds that we're going to see boots on the ground this month in April.”
- •
Oil spikes lead to higher CPI inflation
“Now, one thing you're going to see is you'll see CPI in oil. They really move in tandem. They kind of move in lockstep here. And if you wait till the end, we're about to have a major spike in the chart. You can see it right here, but the CPI inflation hasn't caught up with that major spike in oil prices yet.”
- •
War escalation threatens current Bitcoin range
“Now, if you asked me 12 hours ago, yeah, I still think Bitcoin is heading to 80K, but boots on the ground is going to put dampening effect on everything, except for oil, like I was saying. So we might see Bitcoin visit into the high 50s, low 60s sooner rather than later.”
- •
Holiday weekend causes low liquidity volatility
“And if we do see a severe escalation over this holiday weekend, remember this is a holiday weekend. It's gonna be low liquidity, extra volatility. Bitcoin might lose this range.”
- •
Asset owners win during skyrocketing inflation
“I like how they broke it down in this post. Asset owners will be the only winner long-term if we see inflation skyrocket. And so this has really given Trump an ultimatum. Trump, in my opinion, is at a crossroads.”
- •
Embrace the power law - Portfolio returns are typically driven by a tiny minority of massive winners, meaning the cost of missing one home run is far greater than the cost of several small losses.
“Accepting losses is the cost of capturing outsized investing returns.”
- •
Scale into de-risked winners - Instead of entering a full position immediately, investors should 'average up' and increase their exposure as a business hits milestones and proves its long-term durability.
- •
Exploit long-horizon arbitrage - Exceptional gains are often found by holding overlooked or unpopular businesses long enough for fundamental improvements to be fully realized by the market.
“Accepting losses is the cost of capturing outsized investing returns.”
- •
Embrace the power law - Portfolio returns are typically driven by a tiny minority of massive winners, meaning the cost of missing one home run is far greater than the cost of several small losses.
“Accepting losses is the cost of capturing outsized investing returns.”
- •
Scale into de-risked winners - Instead of entering a full position immediately, investors should 'average up' and increase their exposure as a business hits milestones and proves its long-term durability.
- •
Exploit long-horizon arbitrage - Exceptional gains are often found by holding overlooked or unpopular businesses long enough for fundamental improvements to be fully realized by the market.
“Accepting losses is the cost of capturing outsized investing returns.”
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