MONITOR NAVAL BLOCKADE

“The US naval blockade on Iranian ports took effect April 13 at 10AM eastern after peace talks in Islamabad collapsed over the weekend according to NPR. As a reminder, rough estimates, 12,000,000 barrels per day normally transit the straight, and now that is going to roughly zero. Trump warned Iran's fast attack ships if any ships come anywhere close to our blockade, they will be immediately eliminated.”

“I think the bottom's in for markets overall. That doesn't mean you don't get a pullback, especially going to OpEx later this week. But I think, overall, I think you've you've got a bottom. There's so much hedging, so much shorting taking place. There's not many people left to sell, and I think there there are great opportunities out there.”

“And now they put the IRGC in a vice. It's a damned if you do, damned if you don't vice. They have two choices. They can escalate. Right now, they've enjoyed calm and peace for the last two weeks. They've seen their families. They're starting to formulate a picture of what the future might look like. They're glad that they don't have bombs raining down their head.”

“The US naval blockade on Iranian ports took effect April 13 at 10AM eastern after peace talks in Islamabad collapsed over the weekend according to NPR. The fact that this occurred, it seems to have been relatively well received by the market. That is to say this blockade didn't happen, the negotiations didn't fall apart, and we didn't immediately go straight back to hell in the market.”

“It's also interesting to me to see the pressure around this vis a vis their regional, like, neighbors because after they launch rockets and everybody, you know what we're not seeing for the Strait Of Hormuz blockade by The US is criticism from the other regional powers. This moves the war for both sides to a different layer of the strategic level of war.”

“It's not only the overall Iranian economy that's dependent on this revenue, it's particularly the government and within that, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps which gets almost all of its revenue and thus its ability to pursue the war from oil exports.”

“The US Navy needed to do was reverse the dynamic, make sure that it wasn't the Iranians who were controlling traffic through the Strait, but that it was the US Navy that was. And that sounds like a fairly straightforward process given the size of the US Navy. But in fact, it turns out, it's looking like it will be pretty complicated to execute.”

“One major risk, of course, is that the IRGC and Iran itself lashes out. They have threatened to attack these US Navy ships, and so you could have a major escalation of the fighting again based over the ships coming into the strait or even standing back outside.”

“90 percent of the oil that Iran ships out is headed to China. Much of it is on Chinese crewed, Chinese flagged ships. The president's supposed to go to Beijing in about four weeks, and what he was hoping was going to be this meeting all about a new detente between China and the United States.”

“I'd say a third big category of risk is that Iran responds by restarting attacks on energy infrastructure throughout the Persian Gulf. That is one that carries really long-term risks for the global energy system and the global economy, because as you do more damage to the region's infrastructure, prevent refineries from operating, you risk taking energy offline for a long period of time.”

“The US Navy has a substantial presence in the region, and president Trump says it won't take long for The US to, quote, clean out the strait. Still, the blockade comes with risks. Iran is believed to have placed mines in the waterway. Also, Iran says that if any of its ports are attacked, it will respond by attacking ports belonging to Arab Gulf countries.”

“Too many people are suffering in the world today. Too many innocent people are being killed, and I think someone has to stand up and say, there's a better way to do this. The trip, however, comes amid escalating tensions with the White House over the war in Iran criticized by Pope Leo.”

“That's incredible. This gives hope to our generation that we can actually make change, and democracy is not dead. Orban was closely allied with president Trump, Russia's Vladimir Putin, and other rulers critics have characterized as hard line or authoritarian.”

“The San Francisco Chronicle first reported that all six trustees were terminated last week. Lisa Petrie is a spokesperson for the trust. She says the park will continue to operate normally. Trump signed an executive order last year cutting any federal funding to the trust, but Petrie says it has been self sufficient since 2013.”

“Democratic congressman Eric Swalwell is suspending his campaign for California governor. A former staff member says a lawmaker sexually assaulted her. At least three other women accused Swalwell of sexual misconduct. He denies wrongdoing.”