MONITOR RSI

“And while we can make up some of that gap, because countries and companies have stockpiles, we can sort of like massage it a little bit here and there for the moment. The longer this situation goes on, the longer the tankers can't make it out of the Strait of Hormuz, the longer that 10% will continue compounding. And the longer that the supply disruption will end up rippling through the global economy.”

“So year-over-year inflation through the CPI index, which is a broad measurement of inflation, is up 3.3% from a year ago. And the Federal Reserve uses 2% as a target for where it wants inflation to be. Even before the war with Iran started, inflation was above that target level. And what we have now is an energy shock that is sending gasoline and diesel prices on one of their steepest climbs in decades, if not ever.”

“We are a net exporter of energy. We are the largest oil producer the world has ever seen. So why the heck am I paying higher gasoline prices when all of this is happening 7,000 miles away? The reason why is oil is the most global market. So we are a huge exporter of crude oil, of gasoline, of jet fuel, mainly from the US Gulf Coast. So that tethers us to the global market in a really big way.”

“There was a survey from the University of Michigan. It was the lowest ever in 74 years of the survey taking place. And so some of that might be an overreaction in vibes because the economy was pretty strong coming into this. But the direction of travel, how fast that plummeted in just one month as people were seeing those price increases in the gas station, that just goes to show that people hate this.”

“Natural gas, which is a huge part of what the Middle East exports in terms of energy, that is key for global power generation. It's key for air conditioning. It's also a key input for manufacturers around the world. If we're thinking about companies that build everything from chips to companies that create steel and need high heat, to companies that produce fertilizer for farming, all of that requires an immense amount of natural gas.”

“The rise of direct lending is one of the most important developments in the financial world since the Global Financial Crisis.”

“The change in the interest rate environment has transformed the returns available to credit investors from meager to attractive.”

“When there's too much capital chasing too few deals, the quality of those deals and their terms usually suffer.”

“The success of direct lending is now inextricably linked to the success of the private equity industry.”

“Private credit has moved from a niche sub-asset class to a major, permanent part of the investment landscape.”

“The US labor market posted its largest jobs gain in 15 months, showing remarkable resilience despite escalating Middle East tensions.”

“Analysts warn that prolonged geopolitical conflicts could create headwinds for future employment growth.”

“Today's topics include 101 Technical Analysis and Chart Reading.”

“We examine the differences between Dividend vs. Value Investment.”

“We look at the dynamics of Foreign vs. Domestic Investments.”

“A war few expected to last this long is exposing how fragile global systems really are.”

“The Strait of Hormuz and how shifting power dynamics are reshaping global markets and strategy.”

“We're witnessing a temporary disruption or the end of a the U.S. unipolar era.”

“China’s quiet advantage is part of the shifting power dynamics we unpack.”

“Markets may be underestimating cascading global disruptions.”

“This mission has been historic and has demonstrated new capabilities for Orion spacecraft, has taken our crew farther than any crews have ever gone to the moon and packed safely. 252,756 miles, and that is a fantastic feat. We got a lot more to do.”

“Negotiators from The US and Iran are in Pakistan for talks this weekend that are expected to start on Saturday, but news reports from Iran say the talks will not begin if Israel does not stop its attacks on Lebanon. Israel increased those attacks on Friday, killing at least 13 Lebanese security people in an airstrike in Southern Lebanon.”

“The FAA and the Pentagon say they've completed a thorough safety assessment of a high energy counter drone laser system and that these systems do not pose, quote, undue risk to passenger aircraft, unquote. But the FAA was not sure about that back in February.”

“Police in San Francisco say they've made an arrest following a Molotov cocktail attack early Friday on the home of OpenAI CEO Sam Altman. Officials say the attack set an exterior fence on fire, but there were no injuries.”

“The percentage of black players on Major League Baseball team rosters this year is 6.8%. That's according to the Institute for Diversity and Ethics in Sport. That's the first time in at least twenty years that number has gone up two years in a row.”

“So somewhere between probably September or October of 2026, we should see an all-time low for this cycle, not an all-time low over at all. Before heading to the fourth quarter of the post-having year. So by March of 28, we'll see another having. And then I guess Q4 of 2029 Although it's getting earlier and earlier. So I'd almost speculate it would be the end of Q3 probably of 2029, where we'll see a new all time high.”

“Looking back now on the analytics on 2025, there's no liquidity really in the market to pump all this. And that, with tariffs, with a lot of uncertainty, and then probably the inflation from those ETFs that were exciting this last year, that was definitely fun to see ETFs come online. And that drove a lot of market sentiment. That's probably why we had that early run up that you were just talking about before that last halving, which was April of 2024. So, a lot of excitement, but excitement without liquidity.”

“The House passed it last July 2025 It was passed to the Senate. And there's two portions of the bill that need to pass. There's a Clarity Act A. The A stands for the Agriculture Committee. And they did pass their portion a couple of weeks ago. But there's a Clarity Act B, which is the Banking Committee. And the bankers have dug in their heels. So that second portion of the Clarity Act, they're literally talking to Trump today. Trump has bankers at the White House to see if they can find some common ground.”

“One of the things that, then this is just a theory, of course, is that it appears China and India and some of these other countries are buying gold and silver with their finances, instead of putting it into Bitcoin. And I just wonder, like, how much of that is because of Trump's family's involvement in the crypto space that maybe some of these nation states are, who may have drifted in that direction, are now drifting away from it. So, any thoughts on that?”

“But at least as of 1 o'clock on the 10th of February, this one we're recording, the current price is $69,581, up about 15% from the low, which was $60,074, which was, I believe, 52% below or 52% correction from the all time high we saw in early October. So, yeah, just Will, what's going on? Well, it's good to be here. It's a sad day on one hand. From our last update, you were right in your prediction of Q1 2026.”

“Relative strength index. That's what the RSI stands for. It does not stand for oversold and overbought. That's some metric that we put on to that we've ascribed. This is weaker. This is a Bitcoin three-day chart. Bitcoin's price action and strength level, the correlation between those, we are the weakest point we've been since, I mean, more so even than we saw the COVID dump. This is weaker market activity with the price at $85,000.”

“The question everybody's having, is this a bull or bear market? Fine, have that question. But even in a bear market, what you see in these price activities, what you see regularly is even in a bear market, let's look at this, peak fear, bounce out, peak fear, small bounce... The question you have to ask yourself is, are you selling at the absolute worst time to sell, whether you're in a bull run or a bear market, either one, or do you want to wait for to see what happens with the bounce that will come.”

“Talking to Justin this morning, Justin had a really, really good piece of insight for me. And it was, we look at Sui right now the same way that we looked at Solana a while back. And if you look at Solana's overall timeframe, a lot of people gave up on Solana here, and psychos that believed in the protocol were picking it up at like 10, 20 bucks a piece. Now it's crashed down to $129.”

“There's two of them that interest me for deals. Morpho and Betensor. Now, Betensor, I'm a greedy entry point person. I want to get this thing as close to 200 bucks a piece as I can get. Another one I am tracking is Sui. Now, Sui has been on a violent, violent return back to home. And when I look at the TVL, things are looking a little grim, but that would be a pretty damn good entry point for me.”

“Bitcoin stockings. What paid for the sewing shop? ICP. ICP. Crypto products paid for are made out of a sewing shop that was made from taking profits in crypto. Yes, absolutely. And so, you know, and when I took those profits, I mean, I was, you know, everyone told me I was a fool, but, you know, but these are beautiful. Look at these.”

“Japan's opposition party is calling for increased nuclear plant usage to offset the Iran crisis, and that's highlighting how energy security is becoming a critical investment theme.”

“WTI crew diverse earlier declines to finish up over 3% on the day, just under $100 a barrel.”

“The first revision to Q4 GDP was cut in half, down to 7 tenths of a percent from 1 percentage point... That's not the kind of mix that supports an economic resilience narrative.”

“So somewhere between probably September or October of 2026, we should see an all-time low for this cycle, not an all-time low over at all. Before heading to the fourth quarter of the post-having year. So by March of 28, we'll see another having. And then I guess Q4 of 2029 Although it's getting earlier and earlier. So I'd almost speculate it would be the end of Q3 probably of 2029, where we'll see a new all time high.”

“Looking back now on the analytics on 2025, there's no liquidity really in the market to pump all this. And that, with tariffs, with a lot of uncertainty, and then probably the inflation from those ETFs that were exciting this last year, that was definitely fun to see ETFs come online. And that drove a lot of market sentiment. That's probably why we had that early run up that you were just talking about before that last halving, which was April of 2024. So, a lot of excitement, but excitement without liquidity.”

“The House passed it last July 2025 It was passed to the Senate. And there's two portions of the bill that need to pass. There's a Clarity Act A. The A stands for the Agriculture Committee. And they did pass their portion a couple of weeks ago. But there's a Clarity Act B, which is the Banking Committee. And the bankers have dug in their heels. So that second portion of the Clarity Act, they're literally talking to Trump today. Trump has bankers at the White House to see if they can find some common ground.”

“One of the things that, then this is just a theory, of course, is that it appears China and India and some of these other countries are buying gold and silver with their finances, instead of putting it into Bitcoin. And I just wonder, like, how much of that is because of Trump's family's involvement in the crypto space that maybe some of these nation states are, who may have drifted in that direction, are now drifting away from it. So, any thoughts on that?”

“But at least as of 1 o'clock on the 10th of February, this one we're recording, the current price is $69,581, up about 15% from the low, which was $60,074, which was, I believe, 52% below or 52% correction from the all time high we saw in early October. So, yeah, just Will, what's going on? Well, it's good to be here. It's a sad day on one hand. From our last update, you were right in your prediction of Q1 2026.”

“Relative strength index. That's what the RSI stands for. It does not stand for oversold and overbought. That's some metric that we put on to that we've ascribed. This is weaker. This is a Bitcoin three-day chart. Bitcoin's price action and strength level, the correlation between those, we are the weakest point we've been since, I mean, more so even than we saw the COVID dump. This is weaker market activity with the price at $85,000.”

“The question everybody's having, is this a bull or bear market? Fine, have that question. But even in a bear market, what you see in these price activities, what you see regularly is even in a bear market, let's look at this, peak fear, bounce out, peak fear, small bounce... The question you have to ask yourself is, are you selling at the absolute worst time to sell, whether you're in a bull run or a bear market, either one, or do you want to wait for to see what happens with the bounce that will come.”

“Talking to Justin this morning, Justin had a really, really good piece of insight for me. And it was, we look at Sui right now the same way that we looked at Solana a while back. And if you look at Solana's overall timeframe, a lot of people gave up on Solana here, and psychos that believed in the protocol were picking it up at like 10, 20 bucks a piece. Now it's crashed down to $129.”

“There's two of them that interest me for deals. Morpho and Betensor. Now, Betensor, I'm a greedy entry point person. I want to get this thing as close to 200 bucks a piece as I can get. Another one I am tracking is Sui. Now, Sui has been on a violent, violent return back to home. And when I look at the TVL, things are looking a little grim, but that would be a pretty damn good entry point for me.”

“Bitcoin stockings. What paid for the sewing shop? ICP. ICP. Crypto products paid for are made out of a sewing shop that was made from taking profits in crypto. Yes, absolutely. And so, you know, and when I took those profits, I mean, I was, you know, everyone told me I was a fool, but, you know, but these are beautiful. Look at these.”