TRACK OIL

“Ticker HTZ is Hertz Global... It emerged from bankruptcy in June of 2021 and it's still carrying some pretty hefty leverage, $15.8 billion in long-term debt, negative free cashflow that is projected to be positive next year. In spite of that, it's still projected to lose money. It has not made money since December of 2023. Bottom line is they are executing a genuine operating turnaround, but at the same time, there are still some structural weaknesses in this company that could lead you to say, okay, high risk, high reward. It's certainly not for the faint of heart.”

“Wholesale prices rose sharply in the latest report, pointing to persistent inflation that could complicate Federal Reserve policy decisions. This unexpected uptick in producer prices suggests that inflation, well, the fight is far from over, despite the earlier optimism about cooling pricing pressures. The bond market is trying to balance safe-haven demand against persistent inflation concerns from energy price spikes.”

“The oil story intensified dramatically. Crude oil surged over 12%, its best session since 2020 and closed above $90 a barrel, up 36% on the week. Cutter warned that all Gulf producers may have to shut down production within days, a scenario that could drive oil to $150. Kuwait has reportedly already started cutting production.”

“February non-farm payrolls came in at negative $92,000, an outright decline, completely upending the labor market stabilization theme and better growth sentiment from the ISM prints that we saw earlier this week. Prior months, in fact, were revised down another $69,000. With that, the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4% and the participation rate dropped half a point to 62%.”

“Ball Corporation is the world's largest aluminum beverage can manufacturer. It also produces aluminum containers for personal care and household products. It is more than anything a pure play aluminum packaging name after a history of also being in the aerospace defense industry. But that sold off in February of 2024. What you're seeing is, well, big volume catalysts, sporting events, historically drive meaningful can volume.”

“I think prices are permanently higher. I mean, when I say permanent, nothing's permanent, but at least in the foreseeable future, this year, next year, the year after. You know, we're not there's no going back to the $60, $65 bucks a barrel we were paying before all this mess. You're still left with a fee that's not inconsequential, and then, of course, insurance companies are gonna demand a higher insurance premium for insuring the traffic that moves through this strait because, you know, who knows what will happen in the future.”

“Feels pretty close to script, more or less. You know, the president has gone down this path in other ways. And when push comes to shove, when markets start to react, when stock prices are down, when interest rates are up, and in this case, when oil prices are up, he figures out a way to pivot, to stand down, and to declare victory and hopefully move on.”

“Iran is charging $2,000,000 for every ship that passes through the Strait Of Hormuz. And they have said in the agreement that they have full sovereignty over the Strait, and now they're gonna charge people for moving goods through it. So I guess the question is, one, do you think that that holds? And two, how significant is it from an inflation perspective? Because it seems like that is, yes, ships can pass through, but now there's a toll.”

“I view this as a part of a broader, a very corrosive trend, and that that's the deglobalization of the economy that The US is pulling away from the rest of the world very quickly. I mean, you know, tariffs, immigration policy, what we're doing geopolitically. And then, of course, now the rest of the world is pulling away from us very quickly. If we are deglobalizing and this is just one more thing that will cause that process to continue and potentially even accelerate, it has all kinds of corrosive effects.”

“The US is a big economy—it's the largest on the planet—so, you know, it's still gonna play a very central role, but increasingly less of one as we move forward. We have benefited enormously from the globalization process and the fact that The US is central and the US dollar is central to everything that goes on in the world. And that is now gonna be under pressure; it was under pressure before all this, and it will be under even more pressure going forward.”

“Shaky is probably the best way to describe it, is it seems like there's so much posturing from both sides that it's very hard to tell what the reality is and what the real contingencies in. Things have stabilized, and it seems like it's in everyone's interest for things to stabilize. But the markets are not fully buying it, and you see it in the oil prices as well.”

“The Anthropic release of the world's most powerful model, a model so powerful that they're keeping it behind closed doors, and, only select companies get private access to it to harden their security before the rest of the world gets it. Q Day is dividing the crypto industry while some are preparing, others are saying don't look up.”

“The IRGC, Iran, is demanding payment roughly 2 to $3,000,000 per transit payable in Bitcoin. And then after this ceasefire, Iran immediately sent a volley of rockets into Israel. Because of this, Iran is saying that they are threatening to end this ceasefire and close the Strait Of Hormuz, and this is why everyone kinda just feels shaky about the state of things.”

“The depth of bearishness that we saw in the first couple months of the year feels like it's stabilising a little bit. People are kind of saying, okay, we're probably gonna be okay. People are more forward looking now, talking about things like quantum, I feel like, okay, how do we solve this problem as opposed to, oh my god, the sky is falling.”

“The White House weighs in on the stablecoin debate. Which side did they choose? We have the White House weighing in on the stablecoin yield debate regarding the effects of stablecoin yield prohibition on bank lending. This is a massive topic as the market feels stable on the surface while bigger risks continue to build.”

“If Iran does not fully open without threat, the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours from this exact point in time, the United States of America will hit and obliterate their various power plants, starting with the biggest one first. So he wrote that on Saturday night, which means that 48 hour clock expires tonight.”

“Oil prices at the $100 mark now for a while. There's concern that could go up to $150, $170 a barrel. Over the weekend, United Airlines CEO says they're preparing for that scenario and you see a lot of companies adapting to a scenario where we could have high oil prices for a while.”

“Now to those massive, sometimes 6-hour TSA lines at some US airports over the weekend. As this partial DHS shutdown nears its 40-day mark, ICE agents are set to arrive to help speed things up at some airports today.”

“To the AI economy, where real estate developers are now spending more on data centers than office space. And is it time to call a boomer? Public phones in Boston and Nevada are connecting generations. We'll explain.”

“Helium plays a very important role in a number of industrial processes. Also, fertilizer, that's raising prices for farmers around the world, including here in the US. The fertilizer price goes up because there's a lack of fertilizer. Well, the prices for farmers go up and then food prices go up for consumers.”

“If Iran does not fully open without threat, the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours from this exact point in time, the United States of America will hit and obliterate their various power plants, starting with the biggest one first. So he wrote that on Saturday night, which means that 48 hour clock expires tonight.”

“Oil prices at the $100 mark now for a while. There's concern that could go up to $150, $170 a barrel. Over the weekend, United Airlines CEO says they're preparing for that scenario and you see a lot of companies adapting to a scenario where we could have high oil prices for a while.”

“Now to those massive, sometimes 6-hour TSA lines at some US airports over the weekend. As this partial DHS shutdown nears its 40-day mark, ICE agents are set to arrive to help speed things up at some airports today.”

“To the AI economy, where real estate developers are now spending more on data centers than office space. And is it time to call a boomer? Public phones in Boston and Nevada are connecting generations. We'll explain.”

“Helium plays a very important role in a number of industrial processes. Also, fertilizer, that's raising prices for farmers around the world, including here in the US. The fertilizer price goes up because there's a lack of fertilizer. Well, the prices for farmers go up and then food prices go up for consumers.”

“President Trump said on Truth Social that dozens of planes took part in the operation to save the airmen after his F-15 fighter jet was hit over western Iran on Friday. The plane's pilot was quickly rescued, but the weapons officer, an Air Force colonel, had to go into hiding. Trump wrote, quote, This brave warrior was behind enemy lines in the treacherous mountains of Iran.”

“President Trump warned Iran today in a profane written post on social media that the US will attack key Iranian economic and infrastructure installations Tuesday. This, if no deal, is agreed to before then to keep open the key strait of Hormuz.”

“The president and Secretary Hegseth's rhetoric about no mercy, no quarter, death from above, the bombing of the Stone Ages, this kind of rhetoric is really dangerous because the likelihood of having downed pilots or others who are captured in a war like this is very high. And if you send the message that there's no quarter for the folks on the other side, that really encourages them to mistreat our folks.”

“The governor of Russia's northwestern Leningrad region said Ukrainian drones caused a fuel leak at the Baltic Sea port of Primorsk, the latest in a series of attacks that have slowed shipments of oil out of one of Russia's largest export hubs. Separately, authorities in the Nizhny Novgorod region to the east of Moscow reported Ukrainian drone strikes caused a massive fire at one of Russia's largest oil refineries.”

“The uptick in attacks comes as part of a wider Ukrainian effort to limit Russia's financial windfall from the US and Israel's decision to attack Iran. That war has brought soaring global energy prices and new customers for Russian oil and gas at a moment when Russia's economy had been struggling due to Western sanctions.”

“President Trump said on Truth Social that dozens of planes took part in the operation to save the airmen after his F-15 fighter jet was hit over western Iran on Friday. The plane's pilot was quickly rescued, but the weapons officer, an Air Force colonel, had to go into hiding. Trump wrote, quote, This brave warrior was behind enemy lines in the treacherous mountains of Iran. US rescue aircraft came under fire, but managed to reach the airmen and fly him out of the country.”

“President Trump warned Iran today in a profane written post on social media that the US will attack key Iranian economic and infrastructure installations Tuesday. This, if no deal, is agreed to before then to keep open the key strait of Hormuz. On NBC's Meet the Press, Democratic Senator Tim Kaine criticized the president.”

“The governor of Russia's northwestern Leningrad region said Ukrainian drones caused a fuel leak at the Baltic Sea port of Primorsk, the latest in a series of attacks that have slowed shipments of oil out of one of Russia's largest export hubs. Separately, authorities in the Nizhny Novgorod region to the east of Moscow reported Ukrainian drone strikes caused a massive fire at one of Russia's largest oil refineries.”

“The uptick in attacks comes as part of a wider Ukrainian effort to limit Russia's financial windfall from the US and Israel's decision to attack Iran. That war has brought soaring global energy prices and new customers for Russian oil and gas at a moment when Russia's economy had been struggling due to Western sanctions.”

“The president and Secretary Hegseth's rhetoric about no mercy, no quarter, death from above, the bombing of the Stone Ages, this kind of rhetoric is really dangerous because the likelihood of having downed pilots or others who are captured in a war like this is very high. And if you send the message that there's no quarter for the folks on the other side, that really encourages them to mistreat our folks.”

“President Trump said on Truth Social that dozens of planes took part in the operation to save the airmen after his F-15 fighter jet was hit over western Iran on Friday. This brave warrior was behind enemy lines in the treacherous mountains of Iran. US rescue aircraft came under fire, but managed to reach the airmen and fly him out of the country.”

“Oil is a globally priced commodity. So even though we won't have a physical shortage here, because we've got Canada for heavy oil and we produce our own, the reality is that the price is global, and there's a real physical shortage. And so we don't escape that price impact, and that translates to what it costs a refiner to buy the crude and therefore what you pay for gasoline at the pump.”

“President Trump's executive order calls for his administration to create lists of adult US citizens in each state. It also calls for banning the US. Postal Service from delivering mail and ballots to anyone not on those lists. In their lawsuits, Democrats, voting rights groups, and almost two dozen states argue the Constitution gives state legislatures and Congress, not the president, the power to set rules for federal elections.”

“In Louisiana, police say a 57-year-old man has been charged with driving while impaired, and 18 counts of first-degree negligent injuring after he allegedly drove his car into a crowd at a parade yesterday afternoon. Police say Todd Landry's blood alcohol content was above the legal limit and that the crash at the Louisiana Lao New Year Festival didn't appear intentional.”

“The union posted an announcement on its website saying it had reached a tentative agreement after just a few weeks of negotiations, and weeks before the current contract expires. Details have yet to be revealed, but they are expected to include health benefit protections and new rules about the use of artificial intelligence.”

“Iran shot down those two planes over southwestern Iran. That's near the Strait of Hormuz, the waterway controlled by Iran through which much of the world's oil supply passes, fighting there has led to really a spike in energy prices. These are the first US planes downed in this war, and it could mark a turning point.”

“Hundreds of TSA workers resigned during the recent pay disruption, and experts say it can take months to hire and train replacements. That means staffing levels can vary by airport and even by the time of day, creating unpredictable wait times for travelers.”

“Canadian space agency astronaut Jeremy Hansen said he was struck by seeing the Earth wax and wane as they traveled through space and their view of the planet changed. It was a half Earth, then it was a full Earth, and then it was a no Earth.”

“The Prime Minister warned of extremely difficult times ahead as the Iran war continues to affect oil costs, noting that current prices are almost double the estimates indicated in Senegal's current budget. Several African countries have put in place measures to try and mitigate the impact of increased oil prices, including reducing fuel taxes and increasing subsidies.”

“President Trump's new proposed 2027 budget is calling for more passenger screening at airports to be done by private companies instead of TSA agents, as is the case now. Supporters of the idea say it would ensure screeners continue to get paid during a government shutdown and the White House says it will save the federal government money and that privately operated screeners are more efficient.”

“Iran shot down those two planes over southwestern Iran. That's near the Strait of Hormuz, the waterway controlled by Iran through which much of the world's oil supply passes, fighting there has led to really a spike in energy prices. These are the first US planes downed in this war, and it could mark a turning point.”

“Hundreds of TSA workers resigned during the recent pay disruption, and experts say it can take months to hire and train replacements. That means staffing levels can vary by airport and even by the time of day, creating unpredictable wait times for travelers.”

“Canadian space agency astronaut Jeremy Hansen said he was struck by seeing the Earth wax and wane as they traveled through space and their view of the planet changed. It was a half Earth, then it was a full Earth, and then it was a no Earth.”

“The Prime Minister warned of extremely difficult times ahead as the Iran war continues to affect oil costs, noting that current prices are almost double the estimates indicated in Senegal's current budget. Several African countries have put in place measures to try and mitigate the impact of increased oil prices, including reducing fuel taxes and increasing subsidies.”

“President Trump's new proposed 2027 budget is calling for more passenger screening at airports to be done by private companies instead of TSA agents, as is the case now. Supporters of the idea say it would ensure screeners continue to get paid during a government shutdown and the White House says it will save the federal government money and that privately operated screeners are more efficient.”

“And silver is interesting because silver and Bitcoin are almost been perfectly correlated recently. I don't know if you noticed that. Silver is down 7% today. It's not surprising. It's become the Nuvo Industrial Medal. And so the fact that silver and Bitcoin are new, there's nothing Bitcoin centric about what's happening today.”

“Trump comes out and basically repeats his normal talking points. He more or less quoted truth social. And the markets are like, holy fuck, he doesn't know what's going to happen. Remember, everyone in the market, in the media market, is very negative on Trump. And so, it's just that's true. I mean, look, the mass media is against him, thinks that this is going to be a disaster.”

“The only things that we know for sure are that if oil goes up and he loses control of it, it goes towards 150 or 200, it will trigger a demand shock. It's already doing it. Airplanes flying, prices have just gone way up. I'm going on a trip in a couple of weeks, we were going to meet somebody and they said, no, forget it. The plane tickets are way too expensive to go. So you're going to see a big demand shock about that.”

“Volcker had debt to GDP floating between 25% and 32% or something. Some would argue we're at 130%, right? It's not the same environment. He could hike to 20% without crushing the economy. What he did was he starved it. People were borrowing to spend. He starved it. People, investment was off the charts. And unions were basically demanding crazy pay raises. And unions mattered a lot more back then than they do.”

“The market is pricing, this drags out for a little while. It ultimately gets resolved in a kind of negative-ish but not horrible way where oil starts flowing again. And geopolitics is between the US and China, and we don't care. And everyone just kind of retreats into their bubble of not much has changed, right? That's what the market is pricing. That's where the malaise is coming from.”

“Energy is really the driver here; if you have a supply shock in oil, that's something the Fed can't really control but has to react to.”

“They are in a position where they might have to look through some of this inflation, but that risks losing credibility with the markets.”

“We are seeing a regime shift in how liquidity is provisioned, and that usually means a lot more volatility for risk assets.”