TRADE VOLATILITY

“Similar to what I described there with the seven year timeline between the introduction of perps to crypto in 2016 to really hyperliquid beginning to get serious traction in 2023 and 2024, I think we're about seven years behind when Deribit started to do volume for the first time too. And I think that market is about to get a lot bigger. I think we're in the early innings of, like, that sort of uptick in on chain options adoption following off chain, like the 2023 moment for pubs.”

“It shows how difficult it is to actually replicate a network effect in options. It's much more sticky because you have, you know, very long onboarding cycles, a very high bar for institutions to use, and, you know, once they're onboarded, like, to take incremental risk to go to another exchange. This is very difficult to wrestle someone away from an existing exchange for another exchange once all of that is set up, which is why a lot of the other centralized exchanges tried very hard to get into options and didn't make huge inroads into the market share.”

“The major things that Deribit brought was, like, a real time order book. They actually used the central limit order book for market makers, and that, you know, made prices not so opaque. And it brought it more transparently, which I think is nice. And it was the first time we could make an IV surface for Bitcoin and actually, like, price it, and people could see that. I think that really led the game in a lot of pricing and a lot of risk in portfolio management.”

“I think more and more, we see some of these big OTC takers and traders, at least looking to take less counterparty risk than they have in the past. I mean, you have, like, even, you know, block fills, like big US based, Chicago based, reputable market maker, OTC desk, declaring bankruptcy out of nowhere, like, a month ago. Those risks are present no matter who you're dealing with. And anytime you as a business can reduce that risk, you're going to try to do it.”

“Once you have a trade expiring in a year, the market maker needs capital on that exchange for a year. And the trader has some capital and some positions on the exchange for a year. This is very difficult to wrestle someone away, from an existing exchange for another exchange once all of that is set up, which is why, you know, like, a lot of the other sort of Asia based centralized exchanges tried very hard to get into options and didn't make huge inroads.”

“Shaky is probably the best way to describe it, is it seems like there's so much posturing from both sides that it's very hard to tell what the reality is and what the real contingencies in. Things have stabilized, and it seems like it's in everyone's interest for things to stabilize. But the markets are not fully buying it, and you see it in the oil prices as well.”

“The Anthropic release of the world's most powerful model, a model so powerful that they're keeping it behind closed doors, and, only select companies get private access to it to harden their security before the rest of the world gets it. Q Day is dividing the crypto industry while some are preparing, others are saying don't look up.”

“The IRGC, Iran, is demanding payment roughly 2 to $3,000,000 per transit payable in Bitcoin. And then after this ceasefire, Iran immediately sent a volley of rockets into Israel. Because of this, Iran is saying that they are threatening to end this ceasefire and close the Strait Of Hormuz, and this is why everyone kinda just feels shaky about the state of things.”

“The depth of bearishness that we saw in the first couple months of the year feels like it's stabilising a little bit. People are kind of saying, okay, we're probably gonna be okay. People are more forward looking now, talking about things like quantum, I feel like, okay, how do we solve this problem as opposed to, oh my god, the sky is falling.”

“The White House weighs in on the stablecoin debate. Which side did they choose? We have the White House weighing in on the stablecoin yield debate regarding the effects of stablecoin yield prohibition on bank lending. This is a massive topic as the market feels stable on the surface while bigger risks continue to build.”

“This is not Mean Girls or some television show; this is about stopping the fighting and starting negotiations.”

“What we leave here with today is a commitment that the ukrainians are ready to stop fighting... so that they can get to the table and bring about peace.”

“The trade war has been a drag on the stock market since the beginning of last week; the Dow Jones Industrial Average has tumbled more than 2,400 points.”

“House Speaker Mike Johnson says the bill allows government functions to continue as Congress works on President Trump's broader agenda. It freezes funding; it's a responsible thing to do.”

“I saw a termination email for an employee... that clearly states that their entire unit is being 'abolished.' Whether or not that's legal is not clear yet.”

“Now, Tony Severino predicted that the 2026 would bring a price bottom to a 72 percent drawdown. So, correct, 72 percent is what we're going to see, $34,000 Bitcoin. And if you look here, as Cointelegraph reports consensus favors, you check the prediction markets, we are going to visit that area between 40K and 50K.”

“We got to talk about the recent escalation. We just had a jet get shot down very, very recently. This is breaking news, and the markets are having a major correction here. We're going to talk about Bitcoin, which has started pumping in the little bit of a counter rally here, but I think there's going to be a huge, huge fallout from this jet falling.”

“The 85, 95 percent collapses associated with a very new technology. That's done. This is a proven technology. It's a proven monetary system and it's a new asset class. Believe it or not, in the Bitcoin community, down 50 percent, if that's as far as it goes, they'll consider that a real victory because you're right.”

“We're going to cover Algorand. Algorand is pumping. It's riding the tailwinds of a quantum computing threat to crypto that, you know, everyone's worried about right now. I show it probably once a week to explain token inflation to people, but I'm excited to check out that chart.”

“Massive amount of liquidations of 67.8 sit right above our head. And then, I am watching for that potential flush down to the mid-65 region in case I want to enter in any juicy longs. It's been a great week. I think I did about six grand in Tether this week so far.”