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Quantum computers could break Bitcoin by 2029
โThe analysis that they did was very comprehensive. I think I would encourage everyone to at least read the abstract or even skim the paper if you're in digital assets because they covered quite a breadth of potential attack factors that is not often discussed. In addition to Bitcoin, Satoshi's Bitcoin, that's always what comes up in the quantum conversation.โ
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Oratomic requires 50x fewer qubits for Shor's algorithm
โTypically, the most recent state of the art estimates are on the scale of millions. And indeed, in this recent Google paper, it's half a million physical qubits. We have as few as 10,000. And so it's actually a factor of 50, even relative to this recent result.โ
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Elliptic curve cryptography faces a total collapse
โElliptic curve cryptography is the foundation of pretty much all digital assets because it's been proven to be secure classically, and it's generally really performance. Everyone's gotten really used to elliptic curve cryptography, and it's gotten built into all of these things. I think the Google paper just by saying, hey, all of these things are broken, but it really is saying elliptic curve cryptography might be broken.โ
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Building utility-scale quantum computers remains highly complex
โIt's not like you have the system of a lot of atomic qubits, and then you just press a button, and all of a sudden it becomes a fault-tolerant quantum computer running Shor's algorithm. It's advanced. It's complicated. It's like designing a new type of computer. You have to think about how you do the whole thing.โ
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Cryptographers remain divided on the quantum timeline
โCryptographers' opinions are going to differ about not so much whether quantum computing is a threat, but I think the timeline in which it matters and the priority of that threat. In my dialogue with Matt on X, I was kind of like, you know, Matt, I feel like this is relevant because you know what I think. I agree.โ
