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“And while we can make up some of that gap, because countries and companies have stockpiles, we can sort of like massage it a little bit here and there for the moment. The longer this situation goes on, the longer the tankers can't make it out of the Strait of Hormuz, the longer that 10% will continue compounding. And the longer that the supply disruption will end up rippling through the global economy.”

“So year-over-year inflation through the CPI index, which is a broad measurement of inflation, is up 3.3% from a year ago. And the Federal Reserve uses 2% as a target for where it wants inflation to be. Even before the war with Iran started, inflation was above that target level. And what we have now is an energy shock that is sending gasoline and diesel prices on one of their steepest climbs in decades, if not ever.”

“We are a net exporter of energy. We are the largest oil producer the world has ever seen. So why the heck am I paying higher gasoline prices when all of this is happening 7,000 miles away? The reason why is oil is the most global market. So we are a huge exporter of crude oil, of gasoline, of jet fuel, mainly from the US Gulf Coast. So that tethers us to the global market in a really big way.”

“There was a survey from the University of Michigan. It was the lowest ever in 74 years of the survey taking place. And so some of that might be an overreaction in vibes because the economy was pretty strong coming into this. But the direction of travel, how fast that plummeted in just one month as people were seeing those price increases in the gas station, that just goes to show that people hate this.”

“Natural gas, which is a huge part of what the Middle East exports in terms of energy, that is key for global power generation. It's key for air conditioning. It's also a key input for manufacturers around the world. If we're thinking about companies that build everything from chips to companies that create steel and need high heat, to companies that produce fertilizer for farming, all of that requires an immense amount of natural gas.”

“The fact that Nvidia's downstream supply chain and our downstream demand is so large, they're willing to make the investment upstream. And so, if you look at GTC and people are marveled by the scale of GTC, it's the entire universe of AI all in one place. I bring them together so that the downstream could see the upstream, the upstream could see the downstream, and all of them could see all the advances in AI.”

“I think the number of agents are going to grow exponentially. The number of tool users are going to grow exponentially. And it's very likely that the number of instances of all these tools are going to skyrocket. Today we're limited by the number of engineers. Tomorrow, those engineers are going to be supported by a bunch of agents. And we're going to be exploring out the design space like you've never seen explored before.”

“At some level, the instantaneous demand is greater than the supply upstream and downstream in the world. And it could be at any instance, we could be limited by the number of plumbers, which actually happens. I actually went to the hardest one. Yeah, plumbers and electricians. And the reason for that is because, if we're too far apart, the industry swarms it.”

“If our next several years is a trillion dollars in scale, we have the supply chain to do it. Without our reach, the velocity of our business, just as there's cash flow, there's supply chain flow, there are turns. Nobody is going to build a supply chain for an architecture if the architecture, the business turns is low. Our ability to sustain the scale is only because our downstream demand is so great.”

“The input is electron, the output is tokens. That is in the middle, Nvidia. And our job is to do as much as necessary, as little as possible to enable that transformation to be done at incredible capabilities. Making that token, it's like making one molecule more valuable than another molecule. Making one token more valuable than another. The amount of artistry, engineering, science, invention that goes into making that token valuable, obviously we're watching it happening in real time.”

“And while we can make up some of that gap, because countries and companies have stockpiles, we can sort of like massage it a little bit here and there for the moment. The longer this situation goes on, the longer the tankers can't make it out of the Strait of Hormuz, the longer that 10% will continue compounding. And the longer that the supply disruption will end up rippling through the global economy.”

“So year-over-year inflation through the CPI index, which is a broad measurement of inflation, is up 3.3% from a year ago. And the Federal Reserve uses 2% as a target for where it wants inflation to be. Even before the war with Iran started, inflation was above that target level. And what we have now is an energy shock that is sending gasoline and diesel prices on one of their steepest climbs in decades, if not ever.”

“We are a net exporter of energy. We are the largest oil producer the world has ever seen. So why the heck am I paying higher gasoline prices when all of this is happening 7,000 miles away? The reason why is oil is the most global market. So we are a huge exporter of crude oil, of gasoline, of jet fuel, mainly from the US Gulf Coast. So that tethers us to the global market in a really big way.”

“There was a survey from the University of Michigan. It was the lowest ever in 74 years of the survey taking place. And so some of that might be an overreaction in vibes because the economy was pretty strong coming into this. But the direction of travel, how fast that plummeted in just one month as people were seeing those price increases in the gas station, that just goes to show that people hate this.”

“Natural gas, which is a huge part of what the Middle East exports in terms of energy, that is key for global power generation. It's key for air conditioning. It's also a key input for manufacturers around the world. If we're thinking about companies that build everything from chips to companies that create steel and need high heat, to companies that produce fertilizer for farming, all of that requires an immense amount of natural gas.”

“A war few expected to last this long is exposing how fragile global systems really are.”

“The Strait of Hormuz and how shifting power dynamics are reshaping global markets and strategy.”

“We're witnessing a temporary disruption or the end of a the U.S. unipolar era.”

“China’s quiet advantage is part of the shifting power dynamics we unpack.”

“Markets may be underestimating cascading global disruptions.”

“And so now we are definitively escalating and not only is the straight not going to be open, but we are going to make it even more closed than it was before. So an interesting, you know, reverse card being played here as always, you know, it's a bold strategy cotton. We'll see how it plays out, but yeah, big, big implications this week.”

“There does appear to be a large redirection of VLCCs, which are very large crude carriers to the Gulf here in the U.S. and that's in response to one of the main oil arteries and LNG arteries in the world, as we've discussed for the last month, getting closed off. So yeah, I think it's an interesting kind of illustration of something that we've been talking about.”

“As you know, the figure I show here is 50% of sulfuric acid exports are used for phosphate fertilizers. And it's important because the first market and the downstream kind of agricultural markets that globally that it depends on, that depend on it, are already very disrupted from everything that's gone on thus far out of the Gulf.”

“But alas, we're not a golf podcast for Bitcoin slash. I think we're macro podcast now. I think I've gotten some feedback. Some of the brightest minds in macroeconomics globally have been listening week in, week out just to come and get your thoughts, John, because they're good thoughts, as you alluded to. Things are chaotic.”

“The market decided last week with the ceasefire announcement that everything was, was Gucci and we were heading back to all time highs. But as we mentioned last week too, let's not get immersed and succumb to the 24-hour news cycle and the changing of headlines and the ping-ponging of ceasefire, no ceasefire, deal, no deal.”

“And so now we are definitively escalating and not only is the straight not going to be open, but we are going to make it even more closed than it was before. So an interesting, you know, reverse card being played here as always, you know, it's a bold strategy cotton. We'll see how it plays out, but yeah, big, big implications this week.”

“There does appear to be a large redirection of VLCCs, which are very large crude carriers to the Gulf here in the U.S. and that's in response to one of the main oil arteries and LNG arteries in the world, as we've discussed for the last month, getting closed off. So yeah, I think it's an interesting kind of illustration of something that we've been talking about.”

“As you know, the figure I show here is 50% of sulfuric acid exports are used for phosphate fertilizers. And it's important because the first market and the downstream kind of agricultural markets that globally that it depends on, that depend on it, are already very disrupted from everything that's gone on thus far out of the Gulf.”

“But alas, we're not a golf podcast for Bitcoin slash. I think we're macro podcast now. I think I've gotten some feedback. Some of the brightest minds in macroeconomics globally have been listening week in, week out just to come and get your thoughts, John, because they're good thoughts, as you alluded to. Things are chaotic.”

“The market decided last week with the ceasefire announcement that everything was, was Gucci and we were heading back to all time highs. But as we mentioned last week too, let's not get immersed and succumb to the 24-hour news cycle and the changing of headlines and the ping-ponging of ceasefire, no ceasefire, deal, no deal.”

“I view the entire crypto asset class as a risk asset. There's a very narrow set of circumstances where it's a risk free asset or a safe haven. And if you go back to spring of 2023, when you had several large financial institutions, experienced bank runs, you saw a Bitcoin rally. That's the very narrow area where it's worked as a safe haven. But traditionally, it is a risk asset.”

“I do think it is a great hedge against monetary debasement. Bitcoin was launched in 2009. It trades at almost $70,000 today. If you look at the amount of debt the US has printed in that time, if you look at the amount of monetary inflation and the buying power of the dollar, it's done extraordinarily well. Is it volatile in the short term? Absolutely. But I think it still has really maintained its position as a hedge against monetary debasement.”

“Today is a risk-off day in the market. The S&P, Dow and NASDAQ are all down. And so is the crypto market. We're seeing yields are up in response to higher oil prices. Again, so you're seeing the crypto market down. And I think that makes sense in this kind of perspective. Treating it like any other asset class, it shouldn't have just one single driver.”

“Gold is a supply constrained asset. It is a hedge against monetary debasement in that, right? The new supply of gold increases something like 1% a year. For thousands of years, humans have been putting, seen as a store of value. And so Bitcoin in that sense is a digital gold in that it's a supply constrained asset. You can't force more Bitcoin out, right? It's programmed into the blockchain, how much will be released, when it will be released.”

“What I think about like when we're there for Bitcoin is I think over time, right, the supply of Bitcoin is going to continue to decline, the new supply. And the adoption is going to continue to grow. And so eventually, if you think about the three core long-term drivers of Bitcoin, it's money supply growth, Bitcoin inflation, which we know, and adoption.”

“President Trump said on Truth Social that dozens of planes took part in the operation to save the airmen after his F-15 fighter jet was hit over western Iran on Friday. The plane's pilot was quickly rescued, but the weapons officer, an Air Force colonel, had to go into hiding. Trump wrote, quote, This brave warrior was behind enemy lines in the treacherous mountains of Iran.”

“President Trump warned Iran today in a profane written post on social media that the US will attack key Iranian economic and infrastructure installations Tuesday. This, if no deal, is agreed to before then to keep open the key strait of Hormuz.”

“The president and Secretary Hegseth's rhetoric about no mercy, no quarter, death from above, the bombing of the Stone Ages, this kind of rhetoric is really dangerous because the likelihood of having downed pilots or others who are captured in a war like this is very high. And if you send the message that there's no quarter for the folks on the other side, that really encourages them to mistreat our folks.”

“The governor of Russia's northwestern Leningrad region said Ukrainian drones caused a fuel leak at the Baltic Sea port of Primorsk, the latest in a series of attacks that have slowed shipments of oil out of one of Russia's largest export hubs. Separately, authorities in the Nizhny Novgorod region to the east of Moscow reported Ukrainian drone strikes caused a massive fire at one of Russia's largest oil refineries.”

“The uptick in attacks comes as part of a wider Ukrainian effort to limit Russia's financial windfall from the US and Israel's decision to attack Iran. That war has brought soaring global energy prices and new customers for Russian oil and gas at a moment when Russia's economy had been struggling due to Western sanctions.”