MONITOR FED

“There is strong, strong resistance at 60%. You can see right here, we are knocking all against it. And I can throw down a horizontal line. So we can see a little more clearly, couldn't pass this range. And so there's a decent odds that we will reject from this range. You see, we try to pass it there.”

“To me, that's the others chart. This looks at every crypto except the top 10. In my opinion, Bitcoin dominance is slowly getting skewed. It's becoming less and less accurate. The reason why, USDC, USDT. You do the others chart, it excludes USDC and USDT because it has everything outside of the top 10. This to me is a better bellwether for altcoins.”

“This historical metric looks at a previous all-time high. When it breaks the previous all-time high, how long does it take us to hit a low? And so this is the Pico bottom right here. And you can see we broke it right there. You can, you know, maybe a wick there, but basically 22 months later, 22 months later, that was a low.”

“If we pass the Clarity Act, it's bullish for all of crypto, but it's more bullish for DeFi and alt coins than it is for Bitcoin. And Senator Tom Tillis says we could solve some of the disputes this week. So non-zero-percent chance, Clarity Act is going to get some serious momentum. That is going to be not great for Bitcoin dominance.”

“Another reason we might see dominance tick higher, high federal rates. We might see high Fed rates. A lot of prediction markets are saying, you know, that the Fed is going to increase rates. Not typically good for altcoins. Typically, you know, you want to be a little bit less risky in that environment. However, the but, but Trump wants lower rates.”

“There is strong, strong resistance at 60%. You can see right here, we are knocking all against it. And I can throw down a horizontal line. So we can see a little more clearly, couldn't pass this range. And so there's a decent odds that we will reject from this range. You see, we try to pass it there.”

“To me, that's the others chart. This looks at every crypto except the top 10. In my opinion, Bitcoin dominance is slowly getting skewed. It's becoming less and less accurate. The reason why, USDC, USDT. You do the others chart, it excludes USDC and USDT because it has everything outside of the top 10. This to me is a better bellwether for altcoins.”

“This historical metric looks at a previous all-time high. When it breaks the previous all-time high, how long does it take us to hit a low? And so this is the Pico bottom right here. And you can see we broke it right there. You can, you know, maybe a wick there, but basically 22 months later, 22 months later, that was a low.”

“If we pass the Clarity Act, it's bullish for all of crypto, but it's more bullish for DeFi and alt coins than it is for Bitcoin. And Senator Tom Tillis says we could solve some of the disputes this week. So non-zero-percent chance, Clarity Act is going to get some serious momentum. That is going to be not great for Bitcoin dominance.”

“Another reason we might see dominance tick higher, high federal rates. We might see high Fed rates. A lot of prediction markets are saying, you know, that the Fed is going to increase rates. Not typically good for altcoins. Typically, you know, you want to be a little bit less risky in that environment. However, the but, but Trump wants lower rates.”

“Diplomats from both sides have left Cairo without reaching a definitive agreement.”

“The latest data suggests that inflation is staying higher for longer than anticipated.”

“Favorable wind conditions are finally helping our ground crews gain the upper hand.”

“There is a clear and urgent need for better safety oversight in manufacturing.”

“This is a historic moment as we implement the first comprehensive AI laws.”

“The legislation fell short of the votes needed to move forward in the Senate today.”

“The central bank indicated that it needs more evidence before cutting interest rates.”

“Energy markets are reacting to the increased risk of supply disruptions worldwide.”

“These new standards represent a significant step in reducing toxic industrial emissions.”

“The championship game drew the largest audience in the history of college athletics.”

“Vice president JD Vance led The US delegation and says no agreement was reached. He says a major roadblock was Iran not agreeing to end their nuclear weapons program. In the Middle East, The US says two warships have passed through the hotly contested Strait Of Hormuz.”

“The defense department says two navy guided missile destroyers passed through the Strait Of Hormuz as the critical water passageway has become a key landmark in the ongoing conflict. US central command said that The US forces had begun setting conditions to clear Iranian sea mines planted throughout the waterway.”

“Victor, Christina, and Jeremy, we are we are bonded forever, and no one down here is ever gonna know what the four of us just went through. And it was the most special thing that will ever happen in my life.”

“Minnesota sued the Trump administration in March, accusing it of withholding evidence in the shootings. Anytime law enforcement takes the life of a community member, it's really important that there be a thorough and complete investigation.”

“Major supporters of California representative Eric Swalwell's bid for governor are now withholding that support. The move comes following allegations that he sexually assaulted a woman twice, including once when she worked for him.”

“Bitcoin keeps running into a wall of selling above $70K — roughly $20M/hour in profit-taking — and now that wall has geopolitical weight behind it after the Islamabad peace talks collapsed, Iran's Strait of Hormuz stays effectively closed, and Trump ordered a naval blockade of Iranian ports starting this morning. That's pushing oil toward $100/barrel and forcing tanker traffic into a full reroute away from the Gulf.”

“If those December contracts move over 100, the world is a very different place than it is right now. And that will cause revaluation of various assets. And that will cause, certainly in our administration, doing everything they can to print money. The truth is with AI and with everything going on in the economy and with oil prices going up, it actually cuts economic growth. It cuts the aggregate demand.”

“Our political system in the United States is broken. I mean, it's not just that people think Congress are a bunch of parasitic jackals, which is true, by the way... But it's actually worse than that. It's just completely dysfunctional. That is a large part of this. I mean, if we knew we were going to have a new Federal Reserve Chair in May, which you would think would be known, I think markets would be very different.”

“The dollar's long-term slide continues — now just 46% of global FX and gold reserves, a 26-year low — even as M2 keeps expanding at 4.8% YoY, and central bank gold holdings have officially eclipsed US Treasury holdings for the first time since '96. That's pushing oil toward $100/barrel and forcing tanker traffic into a full reroute away from the Gulf, which benefits US energy exports but hammers Japan, South Korea, and India hardest.”

“The WLFI vs. Justin Sun feud is turning into a full legal brawl over a $75M loan dispute, backdoor token blacklisting, and accusations flying both ways — exactly the kind of circus that undermines crypto's push for institutional credibility. This adds to the geopolitical weight already slowing markets after the Islamabad peace talks collapsed, and Iran's Strait of Hormuz stays effectively closed following the new naval blockade.”

“I kind of see happening is I see a slow bleed into the summer with slightly lower highs and slightly lower lows, right? That's kind of what happened in 2019. It wasn't a massive capitulation. It was just a series of slightly lower highs and slightly lower lows. And I think that will likely last into the summer of 2026.”

“Why did it feel so different than the top in 2021? Why did it feel so different than the top in 2017 and also the top in 2013? And I think the reason is because you could argue that if the top is in, we actually topped on apathy rather than euphoria, right? There wasn't really a rotation into alt coins. There was not that euphoric feeling.”

“The bear market and then the subsequent Bitcoin-only bull market essentially started during the time of quantitative tightening, and that's really what happened the same thing this past cycle. The bear market started around the time that you could see the end of QE, and then the Bitcoin-only bull market started before quantitative tightening was over.”

“In fact, one of the craziest charts you'll see, I think, is if you look at altcoins against the valuation of silver, they're actually below their 2022 lows. So the reason why there's just this lack of interest in crypto, even though Bitcoin went up like 8X, is because almost everything else failed to participate in the actual bull market.”

“If you look at the current bear market... it's actually holding up a lot better than all the prior bear markets. Normally at this point, we would have experienced a 50% drawdown, which we haven't experienced yet. But if you actually compare to the one in 2019, it actually tracks a little bit better.”

“Bitcoin keeps running into a wall of selling above $70K — roughly $20M/hour in profit-taking — and now that wall has geopolitical weight behind it after the Islamabad peace talks collapsed, Iran's Strait of Hormuz stays effectively closed, and Trump ordered a naval blockade of Iranian ports starting this morning. That's pushing oil toward $100/barrel and forcing tanker traffic into a full reroute away from the Gulf.”

“If those December contracts move over 100, the world is a very different place than it is right now. And that will cause revaluation of various assets. And that will cause, certainly in our administration, doing everything they can to print money. The truth is with AI and with everything going on in the economy and with oil prices going up, it actually cuts economic growth. It cuts the aggregate demand.”

“Our political system in the United States is broken. I mean, it's not just that people think Congress are a bunch of parasitic jackals, which is true, by the way... But it's actually worse than that. It's just completely dysfunctional. That is a large part of this. I mean, if we knew we were going to have a new Federal Reserve Chair in May, which you would think would be known, I think markets would be very different.”

“The dollar's long-term slide continues — now just 46% of global FX and gold reserves, a 26-year low — even as M2 keeps expanding at 4.8% YoY, and central bank gold holdings have officially eclipsed US Treasury holdings for the first time since '96. That's pushing oil toward $100/barrel and forcing tanker traffic into a full reroute away from the Gulf, which benefits US energy exports but hammers Japan, South Korea, and India hardest.”

“The WLFI vs. Justin Sun feud is turning into a full legal brawl over a $75M loan dispute, backdoor token blacklisting, and accusations flying both ways — exactly the kind of circus that undermines crypto's push for institutional credibility. This adds to the geopolitical weight already slowing markets after the Islamabad peace talks collapsed, and Iran's Strait of Hormuz stays effectively closed following the new naval blockade.”

“I kind of see happening is I see a slow bleed into the summer with slightly lower highs and slightly lower lows, right? That's kind of what happened in 2019. It wasn't a massive capitulation. It was just a series of slightly lower highs and slightly lower lows. And I think that will likely last into the summer of 2026.”

“Why did it feel so different than the top in 2021? Why did it feel so different than the top in 2017 and also the top in 2013? And I think the reason is because you could argue that if the top is in, we actually topped on apathy rather than euphoria, right? There wasn't really a rotation into alt coins. There was not that euphoric feeling.”

“The bear market and then the subsequent Bitcoin-only bull market essentially started during the time of quantitative tightening, and that's really what happened the same thing this past cycle. The bear market started around the time that you could see the end of QE, and then the Bitcoin-only bull market started before quantitative tightening was over.”

“In fact, one of the craziest charts you'll see, I think, is if you look at altcoins against the valuation of silver, they're actually below their 2022 lows. So the reason why there's just this lack of interest in crypto, even though Bitcoin went up like 8X, is because almost everything else failed to participate in the actual bull market.”

“If you look at the current bear market... it's actually holding up a lot better than all the prior bear markets. Normally at this point, we would have experienced a 50% drawdown, which we haven't experienced yet. But if you actually compare to the one in 2019, it actually tracks a little bit better.”

“US and Israeli forces have rescued a US. Air Force officer nearly two days after his plane was shot down in a mountainous region of Iran. President Trump celebrated the news and also issued a new threat. NPR's Marlaiasson reports. Trump said the rescued officer sustained injuries, but quote, he will be just fine. This was the first time Iran has shot down a US fighter jet since the war started.”

“President Trump also issued a profane threat to Iran on Easter Sunday morning. He said starting Tuesday, the US will bomb power plants and bridges if Iran doesn't open the Strait of Hormuz. The president has issued a series of contradictory statements on the Strait, saying that it would open naturally when the war ends, or that European countries should open the Strait themselves.”

“Israel is now focusing on targeting Iran's steel and petrochemical industries, which are important for Iran's economy and military. Prime Minister Netanyahu said in a video statement that Israel's military strikes in Iran have destroyed the majority of Iran's capabilities to manufacture steel. And Saturday, Israel said it bombed a petrochemical complex needed for manufacturing missiles.”

“Gasoline prices have jumped sharply since the US and Israel launched their war against Iran. That's expected to push the annual inflation rate back above 3 percent when the price index for March is released on Friday. Core inflation, which strips out volatile energy and food prices, is also expected to be higher in March than it was in February.”

“The Federal Reserve says President Trump's tariffs have contributed to upward pressure on the price of imported goods. Stubborn inflation is making the central bank cautious about cutting interest rates. The Fed's likely to feel less pressure to lower borrowing costs after Friday's jobs report. It showed US employers added 178,000 jobs in March as the unemployment rate dipped to 4.3%.”

“Energy is really the driver here; if you have a supply shock in oil, that's something the Fed can't really control but has to react to.”

“They are in a position where they might have to look through some of this inflation, but that risks losing credibility with the markets.”

“We are seeing a regime shift in how liquidity is provisioned, and that usually means a lot more volatility for risk assets.”