WATCH RISK

“After the Second World War, we put together an economic order centered around the US and the US dollar, and that's coming apart. You can see an acceptance that it's coming apart. You saw it last week in the political discussions you saw in Europe about where we're going next. But clearly, the old system is coming apart. There's nothing to replace it. That's where the catastrophic risk component comes in.”

“We can justify the pricing if you assume that there's no catastrophic risk to worry about. But if you do bring in catastrophic risk, then the market becomes worrisome across the board. Whether it's Mag-7, not Mag-7, global equities, US equities, collectively, there seems to be too much of an acceptance that we'll figure a way through this without serious pain.”

“I think that transition, more than a collapse, is what's going to be painful, because there are going to be, you know, there are going to be some businesses, they're going to find a way to get to the other side easily, and other businesses are going to struggle more. But I think that struggle's got to be priced in more, and whether that means lower earnings growth or higher risk premiums, markets haven't quite decided yet.”

“How do you go from the US dollar as the central currency to something else? Because there's nothing else out there right now that can replace the US dollar as a global currency. So I think that that transition, more than a collapse, is what's going to be painful, because there are going to be some businesses that find a way to get to the other side and others that struggle.”

“Europe has lived in the reflected protection of the US for 70 years and essentially been able to focus entirely on economy building, leaving defense and the expense of defending Europe to the US. So this is not just a US problem. The US might have more to lose than everybody else because it's been at the center of the post-World War II economic order. But it's not just the US.”

“I view the entire crypto asset class as a risk asset. There's a very narrow set of circumstances where it's a risk free asset or a safe haven. And if you go back to spring of 2023, when you had several large financial institutions, experienced bank runs, you saw a Bitcoin rally. That's the very narrow area where it's worked as a safe haven. But traditionally, it is a risk asset.”

“I do think it is a great hedge against monetary debasement. Bitcoin was launched in 2009. It trades at almost $70,000 today. If you look at the amount of debt the US has printed in that time, if you look at the amount of monetary inflation and the buying power of the dollar, it's done extraordinarily well. Is it volatile in the short term? Absolutely. But I think it still has really maintained its position as a hedge against monetary debasement.”

“Today is a risk-off day in the market. The S&P, Dow and NASDAQ are all down. And so is the crypto market. We're seeing yields are up in response to higher oil prices. Again, so you're seeing the crypto market down. And I think that makes sense in this kind of perspective. Treating it like any other asset class, it shouldn't have just one single driver.”

“Gold is a supply constrained asset. It is a hedge against monetary debasement in that, right? The new supply of gold increases something like 1% a year. For thousands of years, humans have been putting, seen as a store of value. And so Bitcoin in that sense is a digital gold in that it's a supply constrained asset. You can't force more Bitcoin out, right? It's programmed into the blockchain, how much will be released, when it will be released.”

“What I think about like when we're there for Bitcoin is I think over time, right, the supply of Bitcoin is going to continue to decline, the new supply. And the adoption is going to continue to grow. And so eventually, if you think about the three core long-term drivers of Bitcoin, it's money supply growth, Bitcoin inflation, which we know, and adoption.”

“US and Israeli forces have rescued a US. Air Force officer nearly two days after his plane was shot down in a mountainous region of Iran. President Trump celebrated the news and also issued a new threat. NPR's Marlaiasson reports. Trump said the rescued officer sustained injuries, but quote, he will be just fine. This was the first time Iran has shot down a US fighter jet since the war started.”

“President Trump also issued a profane threat to Iran on Easter Sunday morning. He said starting Tuesday, the US will bomb power plants and bridges if Iran doesn't open the Strait of Hormuz. The president has issued a series of contradictory statements on the Strait, saying that it would open naturally when the war ends, or that European countries should open the Strait themselves.”

“Israel is now focusing on targeting Iran's steel and petrochemical industries, which are important for Iran's economy and military. Prime Minister Netanyahu said in a video statement that Israel's military strikes in Iran have destroyed the majority of Iran's capabilities to manufacture steel. And Saturday, Israel said it bombed a petrochemical complex needed for manufacturing missiles.”

“Gasoline prices have jumped sharply since the US and Israel launched their war against Iran. That's expected to push the annual inflation rate back above 3 percent when the price index for March is released on Friday. Core inflation, which strips out volatile energy and food prices, is also expected to be higher in March than it was in February.”

“The Federal Reserve says President Trump's tariffs have contributed to upward pressure on the price of imported goods. Stubborn inflation is making the central bank cautious about cutting interest rates. The Fed's likely to feel less pressure to lower borrowing costs after Friday's jobs report. It showed US employers added 178,000 jobs in March as the unemployment rate dipped to 4.3%.”

“A US. Air Force officer who, along with another crew member ejected from a jet shot down in Iran on Friday, was rescued by US forces Sunday morning. Tasnim News Agency, affiliated with Iran's Revolutionary Guard, says at least five people were killed by US and Israeli forces involved in the operation.”

“Israel is now focusing on targeting Iran's steel and petrochemical industries, which are important for Iran's economy and military. Prime Minister Netanyahu said in a video statement that Israel's military strikes in Iran have destroyed the majority of Iran's capabilities to manufacture steel.”

“President Trump has given Iran until tomorrow to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which carries about one-fifth of the world's oil supply. Or the US will strike Iran's infrastructure. Today, he renewed that threat. In profane language, he said that otherwise Tuesday will be Power Plant Day and Bridge Day.”

“Assuming there's actually a ceasefire and that Iran is interested in respecting it, it's going to be at least a couple of months. Reopening of the straits will be slow because it may have been mined. Also the logistics of getting all the ships that are trapped in out and the ones that are out in will be slow.”

“Repair, there's been a lot of damage to infrastructure. We don't know how bad. Takes time to get the crew in. There's also restart. A lot of the oil fields have been damaged in Iraq and in other places. You can't turn them on fast with old infrastructure, or you can damage the fields.”

“To me, the market has de-levered and de-grossed a fair bit amount, like so much so that shorting at these areas is a very tough place to make money when you see these types of moves and factor in on top of that. That volatility skew and put demand is still very high. So we've de-grossed tremendously. A lot of the long onlies, the trend followers, systematics, and the market is still very hedged.”

“Oil prices aren't high enough for demand destruction, but they're high enough for inflation. You can make the argument, it's actually almost better for it to go higher. Then you get the demand destruction, like the central bank's gonna actually do something. We're stuck in the corridor of everybody's frozen.”

“This is wartime allocation of capital. And this isn't just about the Iran situation, this is about what's been building for three years, four years, five years. It just favors scarce resources you can't print. The incentives here point to inflation, and inflation is really bad for risk assets because it sends bond yields higher and equity multiples lower.”

“I think part of the problem is the market got over-hedged and indexed actual index realized volatility did not rise commensurately with the implied volatility. So implied volatility is forward-looking, realized volatility is backward-looking. And like we said, the index actual trading did not really move that much. So the implied volatility rolls off as time goes on, causes that short squeeze effect that we saw today.”

“You know what is so fascinating is like from an index basis, things not much happens, but underneath the hood, if you look on like a sectoral basis, everything happens and that's really where all the alphas generated. But you even notice from the like you said, the indexes are unchanged, but some of the hedge fund performance numbers came out and some of these multi-platform funds got absolutely rocked.”

“The market is starting to look past the immediate conflict, betting on a ceasefire or a definitive end that restores supply chain normalcy.”

“This isn't just a funding round; it's a message that the capital requirements for AGI are so massive they've created a moat of pure cash.”

“The judge’s order to stop construction is another example of how the former president's legal challenges are bleeding into his private business interests.”

“The markets are reeling from Donald Trump's speech last night. We have some key levels that we have identified, and it looks like Bitcoin rejecting straight from our trend line. We're going to talk about that in a little bit. We are running out of space for Bitcoin to make a major move. You can see one, two, three, four daily candles... the next four or five days, Bitcoin is going to have to make a major move.”

“What happens on holidays and weekends alike? Well, obviously the markets close, right? Low liquidity. Very, very low liquidity and a lot of violent moves are going to be had. So I would not be surprised to see Bitcoin... it is either going to make a big move to the upside, big move to the downside. I am still bullish as long as we can keep Bitcoin above this range.”

“Solana down almost 6%. We're going to talk about the hack that happened, Drift Protocol. Major, major dex on Solana. It is now down 40%. We're going to talk about the fallout. Zach XBT, he is pissed at Circle. Very pissed at Circle, Drew. I got out of Drift, I think, it spiked over $2. I think it even went to $3 at a point, but seeing it where it's at right now, I mean, absolutely craze.”

“Bitcoin dropped 67, US futures down, meaning the stock market was down 1.5 percent, gold was down 2.7 percent, and oil spiked almost 10 percent here. Tons of major news outlets signaled Trump would be winding down the war. And what he did was basically say this could go on even further. Bitcoin falls on fears of escalation here. We now have fresh concerns about escalation of the war in Iran, reducing demand for risky assets.”

“I feel like we are forming a bottom, and I don't give so much credence in my mind to that crazy washout down the $30,000. And now I'm starting to see chats in YouTube channels go sit call for $10,000, $15,000, $20,000. I think that's copium at this point. It is a very good bottom sign, and we're holding above $60,000 while the president of the most powerful country on the planet is talking about sending a major nation into the stone age.”

“It's actually a $25 billion round of cash is sort of up front... the rest is in kind. So it seems from looking at this... it's a bit like a procurement round.”

“The rest of the space is actually negative on using the product in terms of the unit economics. So the more you use the product, the more you lose the money.”

“The US plans include targeting all of Iran's civilian electric power generation plants, probably simultaneously. That's exactly the red line that Iran has previously said would cause it to retaliate by targeting desalination plants.”

“The rally on the final day of the quarter doesn't change the fact that we're seeing more churn under the surface than the headline numbers suggest.”

“We've moved past the 'buy everything AI' phase and into a period where the market is actually scrutinizing the delivery and inventory of these chips.”

“The timing of these trades relative to the Iranian conflict isn't just lucky; it points to a systemic issue with how sensitive military info is reaching the market.”

“Having the CEOs of the companies you are meant to regulate sitting in the West Wing effectively means the industry is writing its own rulebook.”

“SpaceX is no longer a science project; it's the primary infrastructure for the new space economy, and an IPO would be the largest liquidity event in history.”

“We have to look past the daily headlines and realize the sheer capital being incinerated in this conflict is a massive tax on global growth.”

“Energy is really the driver here; if you have a supply shock in oil, that's something the Fed can't really control but has to react to.”

“They are in a position where they might have to look through some of this inflation, but that risks losing credibility with the markets.”

“We are seeing a regime shift in how liquidity is provisioned, and that usually means a lot more volatility for risk assets.”