WATCH RISK

“Similar to what I described there with the seven year timeline between the introduction of perps to crypto in 2016 to really hyperliquid beginning to get serious traction in 2023 and 2024, I think we're about seven years behind when Deribit started to do volume for the first time too. And I think that market is about to get a lot bigger. I think we're in the early innings of, like, that sort of uptick in on chain options adoption following off chain, like the 2023 moment for pubs.”

“It shows how difficult it is to actually replicate a network effect in options. It's much more sticky because you have, you know, very long onboarding cycles, a very high bar for institutions to use, and, you know, once they're onboarded, like, to take incremental risk to go to another exchange. This is very difficult to wrestle someone away from an existing exchange for another exchange once all of that is set up, which is why a lot of the other centralized exchanges tried very hard to get into options and didn't make huge inroads into the market share.”

“The major things that Deribit brought was, like, a real time order book. They actually used the central limit order book for market makers, and that, you know, made prices not so opaque. And it brought it more transparently, which I think is nice. And it was the first time we could make an IV surface for Bitcoin and actually, like, price it, and people could see that. I think that really led the game in a lot of pricing and a lot of risk in portfolio management.”

“I think more and more, we see some of these big OTC takers and traders, at least looking to take less counterparty risk than they have in the past. I mean, you have, like, even, you know, block fills, like big US based, Chicago based, reputable market maker, OTC desk, declaring bankruptcy out of nowhere, like, a month ago. Those risks are present no matter who you're dealing with. And anytime you as a business can reduce that risk, you're going to try to do it.”

“Once you have a trade expiring in a year, the market maker needs capital on that exchange for a year. And the trader has some capital and some positions on the exchange for a year. This is very difficult to wrestle someone away, from an existing exchange for another exchange once all of that is set up, which is why, you know, like, a lot of the other sort of Asia based centralized exchanges tried very hard to get into options and didn't make huge inroads.”

“It's not only the overall Iranian economy that's dependent on this revenue, it's particularly the government and within that, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps which gets almost all of its revenue and thus its ability to pursue the war from oil exports.”

“The US Navy needed to do was reverse the dynamic, make sure that it wasn't the Iranians who were controlling traffic through the Strait, but that it was the US Navy that was. And that sounds like a fairly straightforward process given the size of the US Navy. But in fact, it turns out, it's looking like it will be pretty complicated to execute.”

“One major risk, of course, is that the IRGC and Iran itself lashes out. They have threatened to attack these US Navy ships, and so you could have a major escalation of the fighting again based over the ships coming into the strait or even standing back outside.”

“90 percent of the oil that Iran ships out is headed to China. Much of it is on Chinese crewed, Chinese flagged ships. The president's supposed to go to Beijing in about four weeks, and what he was hoping was going to be this meeting all about a new detente between China and the United States.”

“I'd say a third big category of risk is that Iran responds by restarting attacks on energy infrastructure throughout the Persian Gulf. That is one that carries really long-term risks for the global energy system and the global economy, because as you do more damage to the region's infrastructure, prevent refineries from operating, you risk taking energy offline for a long period of time.”

“A war few expected to last this long is exposing how fragile global systems really are.”

“The Strait of Hormuz and how shifting power dynamics are reshaping global markets and strategy.”

“We're witnessing a temporary disruption or the end of a the U.S. unipolar era.”

“China’s quiet advantage is part of the shifting power dynamics we unpack.”

“Markets may be underestimating cascading global disruptions.”

“Bond market tightening has become the invisible hand constraining every policy decision, from Iran talks to stimulus spending.”

“When do oil prices force a ceasefire?”

“Does institutional adoption demand Canton’s permissioned structure, or can Ethereum survive with real-world assets on a permissionless layer?”

“With Brent crude at $107 and the 10-year yield climbing, asset prices face a cascade of headwinds.”

“Market-timing in a conflict where you don’t know who the endgame negotiator is may be the wrong frame entirely.”

“Market analysts are currently suggesting that Bitcoin cycle lows are projected for late 2026 based on current liquidity cycles.”

“The competitive edge for platforms like Hyperliquid's advantage is vertical integration across the entire stack.”

“With the rise of AI agents, industry experts warn that seat-based SaaS is facing a crisis of utility.”

“The intensifying Iran conflict creates extreme oil price volatility, impacting global shipping and transport costs.”

“New financial protocols like STRC fixes the yield gap with price-stable returns for institutional investors.”

“The United States is ultimately going to lose a conflict with Iran because it lacks the strategic depth required for that region.”

“Global power is managed by secret societies and structures that the average person never sees or understands.”

“The return of Donald Trump represents a fundamental shift in how the U.S. will interact with its global rivals.”

“Our current institutional framework is crumbling, and this collapse is the precursor to a massive systemic change.”

“The U.S. military is currently overextended, making it vulnerable to asymmetric threats from smaller nations.”

“I kind of see happening is I see a slow bleed into the summer with slightly lower highs and slightly lower lows, right? That's kind of what happened in 2019. It wasn't a massive capitulation. It was just a series of slightly lower highs and slightly lower lows. And I think that will likely last into the summer of 2026.”

“Why did it feel so different than the top in 2021? Why did it feel so different than the top in 2017 and also the top in 2013? And I think the reason is because you could argue that if the top is in, we actually topped on apathy rather than euphoria, right? There wasn't really a rotation into alt coins. There was not that euphoric feeling.”

“The bear market and then the subsequent Bitcoin-only bull market essentially started during the time of quantitative tightening, and that's really what happened the same thing this past cycle. The bear market started around the time that you could see the end of QE, and then the Bitcoin-only bull market started before quantitative tightening was over.”

“In fact, one of the craziest charts you'll see, I think, is if you look at altcoins against the valuation of silver, they're actually below their 2022 lows. So the reason why there's just this lack of interest in crypto, even though Bitcoin went up like 8X, is because almost everything else failed to participate in the actual bull market.”

“If you look at the current bear market... it's actually holding up a lot better than all the prior bear markets. Normally at this point, we would have experienced a 50% drawdown, which we haven't experienced yet. But if you actually compare to the one in 2019, it actually tracks a little bit better.”

“If they wanna have nuclear weapons, they're not gonna have nuclear weapons. I've been saying that for thirty years. I would never allow that to happen before I was in politics, and that country will not have nuclear weapons.”

“People are hurting. They're hurting because of sheer lack of quantities. If you are in The Philippines, you're queuing the same way people were queuing here in the seventies to fill your tank. They are hurting because, they may be in need of helium for semiconductors.”

“Magdi's victory was hard won in an electoral system that over the past sixteen years, Orban had stacked in his favor from gerrymandering to controlling the media. As Brussels now looks forward to working with a more pro European Hungarian leader, Moscow and the current White House administration have lost in Orban, a key ally in Europe.”

“Representative Eric Swalwell says he's suspending his campaign for California governor. He made the announcement Sunday in a social media post saying that he's deeply sorry for mistakes and judgment that he's made in the past. Allegations of sexual misconduct with a former staffer were made public on Friday.”

“The San Francisco Chronicle first reported that all six trustees were terminated last week. Lisa Petri is a spokesperson for the trust. She says the park will continue to operate normally. Trump signed an executive order last year cutting any federal funding to the trust, but Petri says it has been self sufficient since 2013.”

“President Trump says the US Navy will block the Strait Of Hormuz from all ships, and the US military says that starts tomorrow. This after peace talks between The US and Iran and Pakistan yesterday failed to produce a deal. NPR's Mara Eliasson has more on what happens next.”

“It was also miraculous, one could say, that the ceasefire with Iran came just in time as Israeli authorities reopened the Church of the Holy Sepulchre following wartime safety restrictions on gatherings. Israel's foreign ministry says torches carrying the holy flame were flown to Orthodox Christian communities in Greece, Russia, Poland, Georgia, Romania, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Cyprus, and Moldova.”

“There are hundreds of tribally owned gas stations, by and large exempt from paying state fuel taxes, savings they can pass on. The gas stations also provide revenue for reservations to reinvest in their communities, concentrated in Western states where the priciest gas in The US is found.”

“It took McIlroy years to win his first Masters last year. Now the world's number two golfer joins greats Jack Nicklaus, Tiger Woods, and Nick Faldo as the only players to win two in a row. McIlroy now has six majors. Along with another green jacket, he also takes home a $4,500,000 purse.”

“US futures contracts are trading lower at this hour. Dow futures down about 1%. Nasdaq futures down 1.2%. This is NPR news.”

“If they wanna have nuclear weapons, they're not gonna have nuclear weapons. I've been saying that for thirty years. I would never allow that to happen before I was in politics, and that country will not have nuclear weapons.”

“People are hurting. They're hurting because of sheer lack of quantities. If you are in The Philippines, you're queuing the same way people were queuing here in the seventies to fill your tank. They are hurting because, they may be in need of helium for semiconductors.”

“Magdi's victory was hard won in an electoral system that over the past sixteen years, Orban had stacked in his favor from gerrymandering to controlling the media. As Brussels now looks forward to working with a more pro European Hungarian leader, Moscow and the current White House administration have lost in Orban, a key ally in Europe.”

“Representative Eric Swalwell says he's suspending his campaign for California governor. He made the announcement Sunday in a social media post saying that he's deeply sorry for mistakes and judgment that he's made in the past. Allegations of sexual misconduct with a former staffer were made public on Friday.”

“The San Francisco Chronicle first reported that all six trustees were terminated last week. Lisa Petri is a spokesperson for the trust. She says the park will continue to operate normally. Trump signed an executive order last year cutting any federal funding to the trust, but Petri says it has been self sufficient since 2013.”

“I kind of see happening is I see a slow bleed into the summer with slightly lower highs and slightly lower lows, right? That's kind of what happened in 2019. It wasn't a massive capitulation. It was just a series of slightly lower highs and slightly lower lows. And I think that will likely last into the summer of 2026.”

“Why did it feel so different than the top in 2021? Why did it feel so different than the top in 2017 and also the top in 2013? And I think the reason is because you could argue that if the top is in, we actually topped on apathy rather than euphoria, right? There wasn't really a rotation into alt coins. There was not that euphoric feeling.”

“The bear market and then the subsequent Bitcoin-only bull market essentially started during the time of quantitative tightening, and that's really what happened the same thing this past cycle. The bear market started around the time that you could see the end of QE, and then the Bitcoin-only bull market started before quantitative tightening was over.”

“In fact, one of the craziest charts you'll see, I think, is if you look at altcoins against the valuation of silver, they're actually below their 2022 lows. So the reason why there's just this lack of interest in crypto, even though Bitcoin went up like 8X, is because almost everything else failed to participate in the actual bull market.”

“If you look at the current bear market... it's actually holding up a lot better than all the prior bear markets. Normally at this point, we would have experienced a 50% drawdown, which we haven't experienced yet. But if you actually compare to the one in 2019, it actually tracks a little bit better.”

“When a scary macro event hits, crypto usually doesn't behave like digital gold in the first reaction. It behaves like a high-beta, high-leverage risk asset, especially in the first wave, because it trades 24-7, it's liquid, and it's packed with leverage that can be forced out. That's why you saw Bitcoin lurch lower on the headline flow, and you saw the usual second-order effect where altcoins, which are basically beta on beta, got hit even harder.”

“A lot of that pressure has been coming from the most important marginal flow source of the last cycle, US-spot Bitcoin ETFs. Sustained outflows have been tracked for weeks, framed as institutional de-risking while Bitcoin trades in a pressured band. And when ETF flow is negative, it's not just sentiment, it's mechanical. It is literally reduced marginal demand.”

“When traditional venues were closed or thin, on-chain oil-linked futures on hyperliquid surged about 5% after the strikes, with oil USDH perps jumping toward $71 alongside millions in trading volume and open interest. This matters because it shows what crypto has become: not just coins, but a parallel financial system that reprices macro risk in real time. Traditional oil markets don't trade like that on a weekend. Crypto does.”

“On-chain data supports that emotional strain. Santiment highlighted XRP's largest realized loss spike since 2022, roughly $1.93 billion in weekly realized losses. That's the kind of stat that tends to show up near capitulation moments, when holders finally sell at a loss after weeks of pain. Now, a capitulation signal is not a guaranteed bottom. It's simply evidence that fear has reached a point where weak hands are giving up.”

“None of this is random. We knew the set up was there. Not because anyone can predict a strike or a headline, but because the market structure was already fragile. When flows are negative, when liquidity is thinner, when sentiment is jumpy, and when key technical levels are sitting right below price like trap doors, you don't need a lot of force to push the market down the stairs. And that's exactly what happened.”

“We are moving toward a period where the speed of war will exceed the speed of human thought, necessitating a complete rethink of our command and control structures.”

“We are moving toward a period where the speed of war will exceed the speed of human thought, necessitating a complete rethink of our command and control structures.”

“Japan's opposition party is calling for increased nuclear plant usage to offset the Iran crisis, and that's highlighting how energy security is becoming a critical investment theme.”

“WTI crew diverse earlier declines to finish up over 3% on the day, just under $100 a barrel.”

“The first revision to Q4 GDP was cut in half, down to 7 tenths of a percent from 1 percentage point... That's not the kind of mix that supports an economic resilience narrative.”