MONITOR BITCOIN

“Technical indicators suggest that, based on current market cycles, Bitcoin cycle lows are projected for late 2026.”

“By owning the infrastructure and the product layer, Hyperliquid's advantage is vertical integration.”

“As automation and AI agents replace manual tasks, seat-based SaaS is facing a crisis of utility.”

“The escalation of the Iran conflict creates extreme oil price volatility that global markets are struggling to price.”

“The protocol known as STRC fixes the yield gap with price-stable returns for fixed-income investors.”

“What is that golden cross I'm referring to? So when a smaller term moving average moves above a longer term moving average. And in this case, we're looking at the MACD. So this orange line is the longer term moving average. The blue line is the shorter term moving average. And you can see right now, we have a bullish crossover on the MACD, and that bullish crossover is now you know, this is a two day bold div.”

“The Bitcoin gold ratio bottomed after three hundred ninety five days in 2016 right here, Then after three hundred ninety six days in 2019, and then three hundred ninety five days in 2022. So three ninety five ninety six ninety five. Right now, we're at day four hundred and twenty seven. So either this pattern breaks for the first time in a decade or gold holders are about to become Bitcoin exit liquidity.”

“Now there's a lot in global assets. We're talking about a quadrillion. And of that quadrillion dollars, Bitcoin is only 0.2% of that. We're not early. We're absurdly early. And when you look, you can see how big of a portion gold is, and you can see how small of a portion Bitcoin is right there. And so just a small, small shift will have a dramatic change in Bitcoin's price.”

“I did mention a bear flag on gold. So what's the bear flag we're looking at? There is a potential bear flag. I wanna say huge odds this this plays out. You can see it right here, and then we have our our flag as well as our flagpole. And if, say, the breakdown does occur right here again, we're in this little liquidity pocket, about to be in a little tight range.”

“Number one, this long sloping white line. This is gonna act as resistance. The October top and then the January peak, it's October 6. It's gonna be the January. We're hitting this level right here. The second layer of resistance is gonna be the midway point. We've been stuck in this range for over two months, sixty seven days.”

“And so now we are definitively escalating and not only is the straight not going to be open, but we are going to make it even more closed than it was before. So an interesting, you know, reverse card being played here as always, you know, it's a bold strategy cotton. We'll see how it plays out, but yeah, big, big implications this week.”

“There does appear to be a large redirection of VLCCs, which are very large crude carriers to the Gulf here in the U.S. and that's in response to one of the main oil arteries and LNG arteries in the world, as we've discussed for the last month, getting closed off. So yeah, I think it's an interesting kind of illustration of something that we've been talking about.”

“As you know, the figure I show here is 50% of sulfuric acid exports are used for phosphate fertilizers. And it's important because the first market and the downstream kind of agricultural markets that globally that it depends on, that depend on it, are already very disrupted from everything that's gone on thus far out of the Gulf.”

“But alas, we're not a golf podcast for Bitcoin slash. I think we're macro podcast now. I think I've gotten some feedback. Some of the brightest minds in macroeconomics globally have been listening week in, week out just to come and get your thoughts, John, because they're good thoughts, as you alluded to. Things are chaotic.”

“The market decided last week with the ceasefire announcement that everything was, was Gucci and we were heading back to all time highs. But as we mentioned last week too, let's not get immersed and succumb to the 24-hour news cycle and the changing of headlines and the ping-ponging of ceasefire, no ceasefire, deal, no deal.”

“Effective immediately, the United States Navy, the finest in the world, will begin the process of blockading any and all ships trying to enter or leave the Strait Of Hormuz. He said the Navy would also intercept any vessel that had paid a toll to Iran, adding, quote, no one who pays an illegal toll will have safe passage on the high seas. And he finished with, at an appropriate moment, we are fully locked and loaded, and our military will finish up the little that is left of Iran.”

“A country cut off from the dollar system, cut off from SWIFT, cut off from correspondent banking, demanding payment for access to a fifth of the world's oil in Bitcoin. This is exactly why Bitcoin will matter more and more in geopolitics. Bitcoin is neutral and can't be sanctioned or censored. Iran is finding it useful for the same reason a protester in Russia or a working class saver in Argentina does.”

“Satoshi controlled a set of cryptographic keys that can unlock around 1,000,000 Bitcoin that have never moved. Those keys are the only way to prove beyond any doubt who Satoshi is. Everything else is just circumstantial. Adam Back himself flatly denied the claims again. He said, quote, I'm not Satoshi, but I was early and laser focused on the positive societal implications of cryptography, online privacy, and electronic cash.”

“Morgan Stanley launched its spot Bitcoin ETF last week, and it drew in about $34,000,000 in inflows on its first day, making it the best performing ETF debut in the firm's entire history. Amy Oldenburg, Morgan Stanley's head of digital assets, said on Bloomberg TV, quote, it was the best first day of trading for any of our ETFs. Now I have to say the timing of this launch is fascinating because we're in the middle of a Bitcoin price drawdown.”

“On Friday alone, Stretch traded $526,000,000 in volume, more than double its thirty day average of $258,000,000. Strategy CEO, Phong Li, said this week that Stretch is now trading with more liquidity as a percent of market cap than every single magnificent seven common stock. Not just some of them, all of them. That is crazy volume for a preferred stock.”

“Effective immediately, the United States Navy, the finest in the world, will begin the process of blockading any and all ships trying to enter or leave the Strait Of Hormuz. He said the Navy would also intercept any vessel that had paid a toll to Iran, adding, quote, no one who pays an illegal toll will have safe passage on the high seas. And he finished with, at an appropriate moment, we are fully locked and loaded, and our military will finish up the little that is left of Iran.”

“A country cut off from the dollar system, cut off from SWIFT, cut off from correspondent banking, demanding payment for access to a fifth of the world's oil in Bitcoin. This is exactly why Bitcoin will matter more and more in geopolitics. Bitcoin is neutral and can't be sanctioned or censored. Iran is finding it useful for the same reason a protester in Russia or a working class saver in Argentina does.”

“Satoshi controlled a set of cryptographic keys that can unlock around 1,000,000 Bitcoin that have never moved. Those keys are the only way to prove beyond any doubt who Satoshi is. Everything else is just circumstantial. Adam Back himself flatly denied the claims again. He said, quote, I'm not Satoshi, but I was early and laser focused on the positive societal implications of cryptography, online privacy, and electronic cash.”

“Morgan Stanley launched its spot Bitcoin ETF last week, and it drew in about $34,000,000 in inflows on its first day, making it the best performing ETF debut in the firm's entire history. Amy Oldenburg, Morgan Stanley's head of digital assets, said on Bloomberg TV, quote, it was the best first day of trading for any of our ETFs. Now I have to say the timing of this launch is fascinating because we're in the middle of a Bitcoin price drawdown.”

“On Friday alone, Stretch traded $526,000,000 in volume, more than double its thirty day average of $258,000,000. Strategy CEO, Phong Li, said this week that Stretch is now trading with more liquidity as a percent of market cap than every single magnificent seven common stock. Not just some of them, all of them. That is crazy volume for a preferred stock.”

“And so now we are definitively escalating and not only is the straight not going to be open, but we are going to make it even more closed than it was before. So an interesting, you know, reverse card being played here as always, you know, it's a bold strategy cotton. We'll see how it plays out, but yeah, big, big implications this week.”

“There does appear to be a large redirection of VLCCs, which are very large crude carriers to the Gulf here in the U.S. and that's in response to one of the main oil arteries and LNG arteries in the world, as we've discussed for the last month, getting closed off. So yeah, I think it's an interesting kind of illustration of something that we've been talking about.”

“As you know, the figure I show here is 50% of sulfuric acid exports are used for phosphate fertilizers. And it's important because the first market and the downstream kind of agricultural markets that globally that it depends on, that depend on it, are already very disrupted from everything that's gone on thus far out of the Gulf.”

“But alas, we're not a golf podcast for Bitcoin slash. I think we're macro podcast now. I think I've gotten some feedback. Some of the brightest minds in macroeconomics globally have been listening week in, week out just to come and get your thoughts, John, because they're good thoughts, as you alluded to. Things are chaotic.”

“The market decided last week with the ceasefire announcement that everything was, was Gucci and we were heading back to all time highs. But as we mentioned last week too, let's not get immersed and succumb to the 24-hour news cycle and the changing of headlines and the ping-ponging of ceasefire, no ceasefire, deal, no deal.”

“BlackRock quietly accumulated 3% of the entire Bitcoin supply, over 700,000 Bitcoin. I don't know the exact number, but safe to say they are the largest hodler of Bitcoin outside of Satoshi himself, and potentially Max Keiser. At today's prices, that's 72 billion in Bitcoin exposure, a staggering figure clearly by any measure.”

“NASDAQ's David Bailey's KindlyMD kicks off their Bitcoin treasury with a massive $679 million buy. If you're not familiar with David Bailey, he's the CEO of Bitcoin Magazine, and he is Trump's Bitcoin advisor. Remember last week we discussed he was going to be launching his treasury firm with a billion dollar purchase? Well, he got the ball rolling with $679 million.”

“President Trump said Bitcoin takes a lot of pressure off the dollar. It is much more important than anything we have invested in. I got to agree with that, but Max reiterates it obliterates the dollar, but it's important that you don't understand this yet.”

“On-chain analytics firm Glassnode highlighted the growing divergence between institutional demand and the price action. Investment vehicles, notably the US-bought Bitcoin ETFs, were seeing inflows despite the weakening on-chain signals, such as volume. The sustainability of institutional flows and renewed buyer conviction will determine whether this contraction stabilizes.”

“The Daily chart, as you can see, big ass red corrective candle on the day, not looking so good, and it's huge, at least compared to yesterday. But the silver lining, there's a bull flag formation outline here; we also have the Barney the Purple bull flag indicator right there at 146.4.”

“BlackRock quietly accumulated 3% of the entire Bitcoin supply, over 700,000 Bitcoin. I don't know the exact number, but safe to say they are the largest hodler of Bitcoin outside of Satoshi himself, and potentially Max Keiser. At today's prices, that's 72 billion in Bitcoin exposure, a staggering figure clearly by any measure.”

“NASDAQ's David Bailey's KindlyMD kicks off their Bitcoin treasury with a massive $679 million buy. If you're not familiar with David Bailey, he's the CEO of Bitcoin Magazine, and he is Trump's Bitcoin advisor. Remember last week we discussed he was going to be launching his treasury firm with a billion dollar purchase? Well, he got the ball rolling with $679 million.”

“President Trump said Bitcoin takes a lot of pressure off the dollar. It is much more important than anything we have invested in. I got to agree with that, but Max reiterates it obliterates the dollar, but it's important that you don't understand this yet.”

“On-chain analytics firm Glassnode highlighted the growing divergence between institutional demand and the price action. Investment vehicles, notably the US-bought Bitcoin ETFs, were seeing inflows despite the weakening on-chain signals, such as volume. The sustainability of institutional flows and renewed buyer conviction will determine whether this contraction stabilizes.”

“The Daily chart, as you can see, big ass red corrective candle on the day, not looking so good, and it's huge, at least compared to yesterday. But the silver lining, there's a bull flag formation outline here; we also have the Barney the Purple bull flag indicator right there at 146.4.”

“It means literally every American and every American institution will have exposure to the largest crypto exchange. That's a meaningful thing. I'm at a TradFi conference today, and I trialed this as a talking point. It mattered to people. It seemed to suggest to people that this industry has grown up.”

“Coinbase in the S&P means everybody's going to be exposed to Bitcoin, whether they like it or not. That's a big, big, big deal. And so passive investors associated with ETFs and the like, the vanguards of the world and others are going to have some small connection to Bitcoin based on the fact that Coinbase is going to be in the S&P 500.”

“I've always thought the risk. People have tried to pin risk on micro strategy. They're very sophisticated about their sort of debt to their Bitcoin holdings. The risk has always been somebody trying to outdo micro strategy. And I do worry that we're moving up that escalator of people who want to stick their neck out above Michael Saylor.”

“If Bitcoin, which it will, goes down 30, 40%, whatever, and some of these guys start to panic and do want to make people whole or want to have a company that exists, they're going to sell the Bitcoin and that's how you get the liquidation cascading, you know, sell, panic, sell, panic, sell, panic, sell.”

“But for now, it's absolutely true that companies are buying more than 100% of the supply of Bitcoin, right? And that is a good thing for price. That's one of the reasons we're up so much. And I suspect that that's going to continue, right? We think companies will buy 300 to 500,000 Bitcoin this year.”

“Relative strength index. That's what the RSI stands for. It does not stand for oversold and overbought. That's some metric that we put on to that we've ascribed. This is weaker. This is a Bitcoin three-day chart. Bitcoin's price action and strength level, the correlation between those, we are the weakest point we've been since, I mean, more so even than we saw the COVID dump. This is weaker market activity with the price at $85,000.”

“The question everybody's having, is this a bull or bear market? Fine, have that question. But even in a bear market, what you see in these price activities, what you see regularly is even in a bear market, let's look at this, peak fear, bounce out, peak fear, small bounce... The question you have to ask yourself is, are you selling at the absolute worst time to sell, whether you're in a bull run or a bear market, either one, or do you want to wait for to see what happens with the bounce that will come.”

“Talking to Justin this morning, Justin had a really, really good piece of insight for me. And it was, we look at Sui right now the same way that we looked at Solana a while back. And if you look at Solana's overall timeframe, a lot of people gave up on Solana here, and psychos that believed in the protocol were picking it up at like 10, 20 bucks a piece. Now it's crashed down to $129.”

“There's two of them that interest me for deals. Morpho and Betensor. Now, Betensor, I'm a greedy entry point person. I want to get this thing as close to 200 bucks a piece as I can get. Another one I am tracking is Sui. Now, Sui has been on a violent, violent return back to home. And when I look at the TVL, things are looking a little grim, but that would be a pretty damn good entry point for me.”

“Bitcoin stockings. What paid for the sewing shop? ICP. ICP. Crypto products paid for are made out of a sewing shop that was made from taking profits in crypto. Yes, absolutely. And so, you know, and when I took those profits, I mean, I was, you know, everyone told me I was a fool, but, you know, but these are beautiful. Look at these.”

“And it's 10 and three quarters percent now, paid monthly in cash. I'll start with what is stretch. Stretch is the fourth of the five preferred securities that we've offered this year. But in plain layman's language, it's a security, it's an equity that you can buy in the NASDAQ, four letter ticker, STRC.”

“I think the largest banks in the world and the largest banks in the US are going to offer that entire stack of services in the next two to three years. They all realize that this isn't going away, that Bitcoin is For Everyone, and people are asking for access to the asset class, and they're either going to get it from their bank, or they're going to get it elsewhere.”

“And so if you think about what's happening with traditional powers of the world, the US government, the US banking system, they're all getting on board with Bitcoin. And that's extremely bullish for this year and 2026. Why the price action does what it does is sometimes hard to explain. But when you're an investor, you think about the long term of the asset class.”

“And then the last thing, which is what Mike talked about at Bitcoin Meet in the Middle East, which is digital money. How do you give somebody essentially access to something that looks like money backed by Bitcoin that gives them a steady yield? It's better to know that what they would get otherwise called eight, nine percent.”

“Everybody, no matter how rich or poor, or whether you're Democrat or Republican, should have a good return for the money that they save. Good is not 0%. Good is not the rate of inflation. Good is above the rate of inflation. So if it's 10 and 3 quarters percent, so be it, right? Like everybody should have access to that.”

“So somewhere between probably September or October of 2026, we should see an all-time low for this cycle, not an all-time low over at all. Before heading to the fourth quarter of the post-having year. So by March of 28, we'll see another having. And then I guess Q4 of 2029 Although it's getting earlier and earlier. So I'd almost speculate it would be the end of Q3 probably of 2029, where we'll see a new all time high.”

“Looking back now on the analytics on 2025, there's no liquidity really in the market to pump all this. And that, with tariffs, with a lot of uncertainty, and then probably the inflation from those ETFs that were exciting this last year, that was definitely fun to see ETFs come online. And that drove a lot of market sentiment. That's probably why we had that early run up that you were just talking about before that last halving, which was April of 2024. So, a lot of excitement, but excitement without liquidity.”

“The House passed it last July 2025 It was passed to the Senate. And there's two portions of the bill that need to pass. There's a Clarity Act A. The A stands for the Agriculture Committee. And they did pass their portion a couple of weeks ago. But there's a Clarity Act B, which is the Banking Committee. And the bankers have dug in their heels. So that second portion of the Clarity Act, they're literally talking to Trump today. Trump has bankers at the White House to see if they can find some common ground.”

“One of the things that, then this is just a theory, of course, is that it appears China and India and some of these other countries are buying gold and silver with their finances, instead of putting it into Bitcoin. And I just wonder, like, how much of that is because of Trump's family's involvement in the crypto space that maybe some of these nation states are, who may have drifted in that direction, are now drifting away from it. So, any thoughts on that?”

“But at least as of 1 o'clock on the 10th of February, this one we're recording, the current price is $69,581, up about 15% from the low, which was $60,074, which was, I believe, 52% below or 52% correction from the all time high we saw in early October. So, yeah, just Will, what's going on? Well, it's good to be here. It's a sad day on one hand. From our last update, you were right in your prediction of Q1 2026.”

“First of all, if quantum computers do come to a point to where they can hack networks, everything's done. It's all over, you know? It's not just crypto. That's the last of our concerns.”

“Things don't develop in isolation. There's always defenses developing alongside of it. People aren't going to, I mean, the big players, the banks, the billionaires that have crypto, they're not going to sit on the sidelines and just wait to be hacked. They're working on solutions right now.”

“In that latter scenario, which I think people kind of are what they're terribly afraid of, I actually think that that's about a 40 percent haircut to Bitcoin, which we've already had. And the fact that people haven't bought, aren't buying and are concerned about it is a big deal.”

“I mean, for crying out loud, you still have the majority of banks that are providing consumers two-factor authentication over SMS text message. Are you really going to deploy that much compute power against the Bitcoin blockchain when you have so many softer targets you could exploit?”

“I think it's something that should at least be considered in the response from the Bitcoin community, is that it's so far off that we shouldn't even consider it. Or that they take it as religious criticism against the cult and religion, that there could ever be anything wrong with Bitcoin, and don't even address it because it's too emotionally difficult.”

“Now, Tony Severino predicted that the 2026 would bring a price bottom to a 72 percent drawdown. So, correct, 72 percent is what we're going to see, $34,000 Bitcoin. And if you look here, as Cointelegraph reports consensus favors, you check the prediction markets, we are going to visit that area between 40K and 50K.”

“We got to talk about the recent escalation. We just had a jet get shot down very, very recently. This is breaking news, and the markets are having a major correction here. We're going to talk about Bitcoin, which has started pumping in the little bit of a counter rally here, but I think there's going to be a huge, huge fallout from this jet falling.”

“The 85, 95 percent collapses associated with a very new technology. That's done. This is a proven technology. It's a proven monetary system and it's a new asset class. Believe it or not, in the Bitcoin community, down 50 percent, if that's as far as it goes, they'll consider that a real victory because you're right.”

“We're going to cover Algorand. Algorand is pumping. It's riding the tailwinds of a quantum computing threat to crypto that, you know, everyone's worried about right now. I show it probably once a week to explain token inflation to people, but I'm excited to check out that chart.”

“Massive amount of liquidations of 67.8 sit right above our head. And then, I am watching for that potential flush down to the mid-65 region in case I want to enter in any juicy longs. It's been a great week. I think I did about six grand in Tether this week so far.”