MONITOR BITCOIN

“And it's 10 and three quarters percent now, paid monthly in cash. I'll start with what is stretch. Stretch is the fourth of the five preferred securities that we've offered this year. But in plain layman's language, it's a security, it's an equity that you can buy in the NASDAQ, four letter ticker, STRC.”

“I think the largest banks in the world and the largest banks in the US are going to offer that entire stack of services in the next two to three years. They all realize that this isn't going away, that Bitcoin is For Everyone, and people are asking for access to the asset class, and they're either going to get it from their bank, or they're going to get it elsewhere.”

“And so if you think about what's happening with traditional powers of the world, the US government, the US banking system, they're all getting on board with Bitcoin. And that's extremely bullish for this year and 2026. Why the price action does what it does is sometimes hard to explain. But when you're an investor, you think about the long term of the asset class.”

“And then the last thing, which is what Mike talked about at Bitcoin Meet in the Middle East, which is digital money. How do you give somebody essentially access to something that looks like money backed by Bitcoin that gives them a steady yield? It's better to know that what they would get otherwise called eight, nine percent.”

“Everybody, no matter how rich or poor, or whether you're Democrat or Republican, should have a good return for the money that they save. Good is not 0%. Good is not the rate of inflation. Good is above the rate of inflation. So if it's 10 and 3 quarters percent, so be it, right? Like everybody should have access to that.”

“So somewhere between probably September or October of 2026, we should see an all-time low for this cycle, not an all-time low over at all. Before heading to the fourth quarter of the post-having year. So by March of 28, we'll see another having. And then I guess Q4 of 2029 Although it's getting earlier and earlier. So I'd almost speculate it would be the end of Q3 probably of 2029, where we'll see a new all time high.”

“Looking back now on the analytics on 2025, there's no liquidity really in the market to pump all this. And that, with tariffs, with a lot of uncertainty, and then probably the inflation from those ETFs that were exciting this last year, that was definitely fun to see ETFs come online. And that drove a lot of market sentiment. That's probably why we had that early run up that you were just talking about before that last halving, which was April of 2024. So, a lot of excitement, but excitement without liquidity.”

“The House passed it last July 2025 It was passed to the Senate. And there's two portions of the bill that need to pass. There's a Clarity Act A. The A stands for the Agriculture Committee. And they did pass their portion a couple of weeks ago. But there's a Clarity Act B, which is the Banking Committee. And the bankers have dug in their heels. So that second portion of the Clarity Act, they're literally talking to Trump today. Trump has bankers at the White House to see if they can find some common ground.”

“One of the things that, then this is just a theory, of course, is that it appears China and India and some of these other countries are buying gold and silver with their finances, instead of putting it into Bitcoin. And I just wonder, like, how much of that is because of Trump's family's involvement in the crypto space that maybe some of these nation states are, who may have drifted in that direction, are now drifting away from it. So, any thoughts on that?”

“But at least as of 1 o'clock on the 10th of February, this one we're recording, the current price is $69,581, up about 15% from the low, which was $60,074, which was, I believe, 52% below or 52% correction from the all time high we saw in early October. So, yeah, just Will, what's going on? Well, it's good to be here. It's a sad day on one hand. From our last update, you were right in your prediction of Q1 2026.”

“I do think by the end of this year, people will start to realize that productivity gains are going up. And the question is, how much of this is around artificial intelligence? And I think a really, really high part of it is about artificial intelligence. We are having 4% GDP. This, the last two quarters that we have GDP numbers for combined were over 4%.”

“I basically said capitalism is effectively fractured and ending. And what I meant by that, as you read through it, is we are having 4% GDP. Nominal GDP in Q3 was annualized at 8%. And during those six months, we created zero jobs. And today we got the payroll number, but again, it's low numbers, and we revised down more than we created.”

“I mean, it's crazy in the fact that it's unthinkable, but at the same time, whenever I do on-site presentations, I always talk about the fact that you should think the unthinkable because AI is moving at such a fast pace. If GDP is 120 trillion, it's estimated that compensation is 60 trillion across the globe. Well, if you're going to take, if you're going to replace 60 trillion with AI over the course of the next five years, then 10% to me is not out of the question.”

“The reason it's up there, we're still early in the data counting, so this is very early, but the reason is because the trade deficit is falling. And again, the trade deficit is the other side of this. We've been running a deficit, trade deficit in the country for a long time. That has led to a capital account surplus, meaning the money leaves the US, it goes to these other countries.”

“The rest of the world, because the cost of coding is going to zero, the ability for anyone to do it has become ubiquitous. That means companies around the world that are more bloated... it's much easier to make your profit margins go up with AI when you're starting from 10% than if you're starting from 75%. I think that's what we're starting to see because the companies that are at 75%, they're either coding companies or being disrupted by AI.”

“Relative strength index. That's what the RSI stands for. It does not stand for oversold and overbought. That's some metric that we put on to that we've ascribed. This is weaker. This is a Bitcoin three-day chart. Bitcoin's price action and strength level, the correlation between those, we are the weakest point we've been since, I mean, more so even than we saw the COVID dump. This is weaker market activity with the price at $85,000.”

“The question everybody's having, is this a bull or bear market? Fine, have that question. But even in a bear market, what you see in these price activities, what you see regularly is even in a bear market, let's look at this, peak fear, bounce out, peak fear, small bounce... The question you have to ask yourself is, are you selling at the absolute worst time to sell, whether you're in a bull run or a bear market, either one, or do you want to wait for to see what happens with the bounce that will come.”

“Talking to Justin this morning, Justin had a really, really good piece of insight for me. And it was, we look at Sui right now the same way that we looked at Solana a while back. And if you look at Solana's overall timeframe, a lot of people gave up on Solana here, and psychos that believed in the protocol were picking it up at like 10, 20 bucks a piece. Now it's crashed down to $129.”

“There's two of them that interest me for deals. Morpho and Betensor. Now, Betensor, I'm a greedy entry point person. I want to get this thing as close to 200 bucks a piece as I can get. Another one I am tracking is Sui. Now, Sui has been on a violent, violent return back to home. And when I look at the TVL, things are looking a little grim, but that would be a pretty damn good entry point for me.”

“Bitcoin stockings. What paid for the sewing shop? ICP. ICP. Crypto products paid for are made out of a sewing shop that was made from taking profits in crypto. Yes, absolutely. And so, you know, and when I took those profits, I mean, I was, you know, everyone told me I was a fool, but, you know, but these are beautiful. Look at these.”

“This paper, what they're not doing is, they're not saying we've broken elliptic curve cryptography. They're not saying we have a machine. They're saying, if you had a machine, this is the algorithm you would run on the machine, and these are the resource requirements. They've posited that you, if you had a superconducting qubit quantum computer, you could break elliptic curve cryptography with 1,200 logical qubits.”

“Their big contribution was realizing if you had a quantum computer this size, you could actually crack elliptic curves in around 10 minutes, which is how long it takes for a transaction to be included in the blockchain. So this opens up Bitcoin to this new style of attack, what they call on spend, what I call short range tag. And so it changes the threat model for the worse.”

“Instead, you had the most of the Bitcoin core developers that I saw comment on this accused me of having a conflict of interest for drawing attention to the papers, ignoring the fact that I was not involved in these papers at all. This is Google paper and it's a Caltech and a Stanford paper. But the thing is, this is information that seems like only they are privy to, and if you look at the Bitcoin mailing list, there's no real evidence that there's any kind of posture that Bitcoin is going to upgrade.”

“Well, I think we so we made this investment in Project 11 over a year ago. And it was with the idea that we just believed that quantum computing was going to impact public blockchains. And eventually we'd have to have some sort of a migration to post quantum. Thus, we put our capital on the line beneath that thesis.”

“Then we have OpenFX, which is a stablecoin FX wholesale liquidity company. They've raised $94 million in a Series A led by Excel with Atomico, M13, and Pantera. FX market is just being completely upended by stablecoins right now. And the big wholesale banks are nowhere. So you're seeing these companies like OpenFX just get to tremendous scale.”

“First of all, if quantum computers do come to a point to where they can hack networks, everything's done. It's all over, you know? It's not just crypto. That's the last of our concerns.”

“Things don't develop in isolation. There's always defenses developing alongside of it. People aren't going to, I mean, the big players, the banks, the billionaires that have crypto, they're not going to sit on the sidelines and just wait to be hacked. They're working on solutions right now.”

“In that latter scenario, which I think people kind of are what they're terribly afraid of, I actually think that that's about a 40 percent haircut to Bitcoin, which we've already had. And the fact that people haven't bought, aren't buying and are concerned about it is a big deal.”

“I mean, for crying out loud, you still have the majority of banks that are providing consumers two-factor authentication over SMS text message. Are you really going to deploy that much compute power against the Bitcoin blockchain when you have so many softer targets you could exploit?”

“I think it's something that should at least be considered in the response from the Bitcoin community, is that it's so far off that we shouldn't even consider it. Or that they take it as religious criticism against the cult and religion, that there could ever be anything wrong with Bitcoin, and don't even address it because it's too emotionally difficult.”

“Now, Tony Severino predicted that the 2026 would bring a price bottom to a 72 percent drawdown. So, correct, 72 percent is what we're going to see, $34,000 Bitcoin. And if you look here, as Cointelegraph reports consensus favors, you check the prediction markets, we are going to visit that area between 40K and 50K.”

“We got to talk about the recent escalation. We just had a jet get shot down very, very recently. This is breaking news, and the markets are having a major correction here. We're going to talk about Bitcoin, which has started pumping in the little bit of a counter rally here, but I think there's going to be a huge, huge fallout from this jet falling.”

“The 85, 95 percent collapses associated with a very new technology. That's done. This is a proven technology. It's a proven monetary system and it's a new asset class. Believe it or not, in the Bitcoin community, down 50 percent, if that's as far as it goes, they'll consider that a real victory because you're right.”

“We're going to cover Algorand. Algorand is pumping. It's riding the tailwinds of a quantum computing threat to crypto that, you know, everyone's worried about right now. I show it probably once a week to explain token inflation to people, but I'm excited to check out that chart.”

“Massive amount of liquidations of 67.8 sit right above our head. And then, I am watching for that potential flush down to the mid-65 region in case I want to enter in any juicy longs. It's been a great week. I think I did about six grand in Tether this week so far.”

“This paper, what they're not doing is, they're not saying we've broken elliptic curve cryptography. They're not saying we have a machine. They're saying, if you had a machine, this is the algorithm you would run on the machine, and these are the resource requirements. They've posited that you, if you had a superconducting qubit quantum computer, you could break elliptic curve cryptography with 1,200 logical qubits.”

“Their big contribution was realizing if you had a quantum computer this size, you could actually crack elliptic curves in around 10 minutes, which is how long it takes for a transaction to be included in the blockchain. So this opens up Bitcoin to this new style of attack, what they call on spend, what I call short range tag. And so it changes the threat model for the worse.”

“Instead, you had the most of the Bitcoin core developers that I saw comment on this accused me of having a conflict of interest for drawing attention to the papers, ignoring the fact that I was not involved in these papers at all. This is Google paper and it's a Caltech and a Stanford paper. But the thing is, this is information that seems like only they are privy to, and if you look at the Bitcoin mailing list, there's no real evidence that there's any kind of posture that Bitcoin is going to upgrade.”

“Well, I think we so we made this investment in Project 11 over a year ago. And it was with the idea that we just believed that quantum computing was going to impact public blockchains. And eventually we'd have to have some sort of a migration to post quantum. Thus, we put our capital on the line beneath that thesis.”

“Then we have OpenFX, which is a stablecoin FX wholesale liquidity company. They've raised $94 million in a Series A led by Excel with Atomico, M13, and Pantera. FX market is just being completely upended by stablecoins right now. And the big wholesale banks are nowhere. So you're seeing these companies like OpenFX just get to tremendous scale.”

“Zooming in to the one hour, you can see we got pretty close. These white lines are showing reversals... we just created another bull div on the hourly. And right now, we are starting to pump, so this might give us enough fuel to hit the top of this range. That's what I'm looking at on Bitcoin's chart.”

“I just am still seeing a little bit of bearish pressure here on oil and the fact that we rejected so cleanly up this parallel range. Makes me think that we're more than likely going to revisit at least the midpoint of this parallel range. If that happens tomorrow, that means oil is going to drop back down to about $103.”

“So we're seeing the same drawdown, might be seeing a little bit of a bounce here. We're trying to get above this trend line as we speak. We bounced right here April of 2025... and we're really, really close to this range on Microsoft. So I'm nibbling in some Microsoft. I've gotten a little bit of Microsoft. I'm a little bit more bullish on this chart.”

“Nike is beaten down. And this is a story of tariffs, but it's down 75%. $40 to 42, really, really good accumulation zone for Nike, in my opinion. Look at that recent drawdown. I mean, that is oversold. If I've ever seen anything oversold. So I'm nibbling into some Nike.”

“After that Trump speech, we have Bitcoin dumping, stock market dumping, oil pumping, looks like inflation is going to start rising. But I think a lot of people are about to be on the wrong side of a trade, moving forward here. So watch these levels with me. And folks, I'll see you at the top.”

“A third of the world by countries that represent about a third of the world's population, they are all in declining mode. That's a fact. And if you look at the top ten first wave economies, they account for about 30% of the global population and about 70% of the world economy GDP; they are all declining. This is a slow moving train wreck that we have to be cognizant for.”

“Wealth concentration now exceeds even the Gilded Age, and when you bring in the lens of AI, the fog of war is so thick that it prevents us from being able to see into the future. I was inspired to seek truth by trying to anchor what you at least know for sure, because it gives me great peace when I can underwrite the things I know with certainty and reorient my entire investing mindset.”

“The value of labor is reaching zero because I think technology as a whole is deflationary. I think that's the punchline. If technology works the way that is allowing for productivity growth that resets the jump to universality in ways that is unimaginable, it's really deflationary. And so you should expect a lot of things to maybe go down in price.”

“What's happening though is that's not what we're seeing in actual price because we live also in a credit world, where credit inflation and credit creation is a big driver of our growth model. Technology as a whole is deflationary, but these compounding things like unprecedented levels of debt make the equation harder to reason about unless you anchor to the certain truths of demographics and labor.”

“In 1960, health care was only about 5% of US GDP, but we now know today it's over 20% of US GDP. That number alone kind of tells you people are living longer and health care is getting more expensive, which means that consumption actually has to be fulfilled. This will probably come from some kind of asset disposition that the older generation has acquired throughout their working years.”

“The 'danger zone' is officially here.”

“The 'danger zone' is officially here.”